Futures:
Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,893/mt. In early trading, prices fluctuated and consolidated in the $1,882–1,895/mt range, briefly dipping to $1,880/mt during the session. Bulls then gained strength, driving prices up rapidly to a high of $1,908/mt. After consolidating at high levels, bullish momentum somewhat faded, and LME lead turned to a fluctuating pullback. Prices saw wide swings in the $1,888–1,898/mt range and finally closed at $1,889/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down $8/mt or 0.42%.
Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,360 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fell rapidly to a low of 16,325 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward, but failed to break through resistance. Lead prices then fluctuated downward again. After 22:30, prices gradually stabilized and rebounded, reaching a high of 16,445 yuan/mt, after which SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound in the 16,410–16,445 yuan/mt range. It finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 125 yuan/mt or 0.77%.
On the Macro Front:
1. Trump issued Iran a "48-hour ultimatum," and Iran responded forcefully. 2. Trump's team was reported to have secretly plotted "peace talks" with Iran, while Iran laid out six conditions. 3. The US and Israel again struck Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment facility. 4. Israel's defense minister said strikes on Iran would be "significantly intensified." 5. Bessent said that sometimes, actions must be escalated to ease tensions. 6. Sixteen measures were introduced to remove obstacles and bottlenecks for inbound tourism. 7. Two departments issued new rules on overseas lending, raising the macro-prudential adjustment coefficient to 0.6. 8. Relevant enterprises confirmed that Tesla is expected to procure Chinese PV equipment. 9. Huawei officially released the new-generation Ascend 950PR computing chip.
Spot Fundamentals:
The center of SHFE lead moved further lower. Some suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and market quotations were limited. Meanwhile, regional differences in cargoes self-picked up from production site from primary lead smelters widened between north and south China. In north China, circulating cargoes were relatively ample, with some quoted on par with the SMM #1 lead price or even at discounts, while in south China, cargoes were generally shipped at premiums as market participants held prices firm. At the same time, losses at secondary lead smelters widened, and they were reluctant to sell at low prices. Most enterprises suspended shipments, while a few secondary refined lead cargoes were offered ex-works at premiums against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment. Apart from a few enterprises purchasing on dips, others mostly stayed on the sidelines with limited procurement, or mainly purchased through long-term contracts. Transactions in the spot order market showed regional differences.
Inventory: As of March 20, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,250 mt, or 0.05%, to 284,100 mt; as of March 19, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions fell slightly
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Supply side, with lead prices running at low levels, primary lead enterprises showed relatively weak willingness to sell, while secondary lead enterprises, supported by costs, held prices firm and were reluctant to sell. Overall market trading was sluggish. Demand side, downstream battery plants only maintained procurement under long-term contracts for rigid demand and remained cautious and on the sidelines toward spot orders. SMM expected SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term.
![The Most-Traded SHFE Lead 2605 Contract Retreated After a Rapid Rise but Closed Higher, with Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment in the Spot Market Amid the Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers [Lead Futures Brief Commentary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/xVUpr20251217171722.jpg)
