Supply-Side Structural Adjustment Drives Strong Gains in Iron Ore Futures! [SMM Brief Review]

Dalian iron ore futures gapped higher at the open today, stayed firm in the morning session, and were in the doldrums in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 811.5 yuan/mt, up 2.33% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, spot prices rose by 5-10 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were average in offering activity, while steel mills restocked on demand, with limited inquiries. Overall transactions in the spot market were sluggish. 

The SMM survey showed that total iron ore inventory at 35 ports nationwide reached 155.41 million mt this week, an increase of 610,000 mt WoW, with the pace of inventory buildup improving somewhat. Meanwhile, daily average port pick-up volume reached 2.53 million mt, down 20,000 mt from the previous period.

Looking ahead, the moderating pace of iron ore inventory buildup indicated that demand had begun to recover. At the same time, due to structural adjustments on the supply side, rigid demand for iron ore shifted in a concentrated manner toward certain varieties, causing localized supply deficits and thereby forming strong bottom support. Coupled with still-robust bullish sentiment, iron ore prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, as upside pressure has eased somewhat while downside support remains strong.