Shanghai Spot Copper Discounts Expected to Narrow as Market Activity Picks Up

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market will officially shift to quoting against the 2605 contract. Market structure side, the Contango price spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts ran within a range of 100-30 yuan/mt. Suppliers who previously established long-short arbitrage positions under the backwardation structure are now more inclined to hold open interest for delivery to capture the price spread gains under the current structure, with limited willingness to sell spot cargo at low prices, providing some support for spot premiums. Demand side, copper prices rose again intraday, and downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait-and-see stance, with limited acceptance of current price levels and increasingly cautious purchasing. In addition, attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants after the last trading day; if warrants are released in a concentrated manner, this may exert periodic pressure on spot premiums. Overall, under the dual effects of price spread structure support and high prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow.

Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a discount of 80 yuan/mt, with the average price up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 102,525 yuan/mt, up 1,755 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.