On the morning of March 6, 2026, after the center of the most-traded SHFE tin contract moved higher, it traded in a choppy range and closed at midday at 398,020 yuan/mt, down 0.61%. In the LME market, three-month tin also moved higher in consolidation, last quoted at $50,400/mt, up 2.01%.
After the holiday, market capital sentiment turned active, and supply concerns triggered by the Myanmar conflict once again pushed tin prices higher for a time. However, as progress was made on dewatering issues in deep mine shafts in Myanmar, Indonesia’s exports gradually recovered, and Middle East tensions diverted funds toward the energy sector, the earlier rationale supporting prices fluctuate at highs began to loosen. After a choppy stalemate around 405,000 yuan, SHFE tin contracts fell rapidly, with futures showing a typical double-top pattern. Today mainly saw consolidation after the decline; going forward, vigilance is needed for a potential technical pullback, while continuing to monitor the direction of market sentiment evolution.
Recently, US economic data remained strong: the February ISM services PMI rose to 56.1, a new high in more than three years, and the ISM manufacturing PMI also stayed in expansion territory for two consecutive months. However, price pressures intensified in tandem, with the manufacturing prices index rising to its highest level since June 2022, reflecting the impact of import tariffs and rising raw material prices. Strong data provided short-term support for the US dollar, attracting some funds back into US dollar assets; but elevated inflation also made US Fed monetary policy expectations more complex, potentially delaying the pace of interest rate cuts, and market concerns over liquidity increased. Meanwhile, restricted transport through Middle East straits pushed up oil prices, shifting market focus toward crude oil and other sectors, and the overall rise in the metals sector was constrained.
In the spot market, when prices fell to the 380,000-390,000 yuan range yesterday afternoon, trading was active, and most enterprises took the opportunity to replenish inventory. After prices rebounded this morning, downstream enterprises returned to a wait-and-see stance, with only limited follow-through on rigid demand, mostly focusing on drawing down existing inventory.
At present, tin prices are heavily influenced by macro sentiment; amid volatile overseas geopolitical conditions, the market lacks clear overall guidance. Industry chain activity remains constrained by high prices. Tin prices are expected to maintain fluctuating trend in the short term, and may show a consolidation pattern after the earlier decline. If prices fail to rebound and hold above key levels going forward, the center of the most-traded contract may continue to move lower.
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