Post-holiday inventories meet expectations, with peak seen at 1.35–1.40Mt.

Published: Feb 28, 2026 14:29

Save

SMM February 28 News:
According to SMM estimates, the monthly cast ingot volume of aluminum in February increased by around 170,000 mt MoM, largely in line with expectations at the beginning of the month. Entering March, aluminum smelters have varying plans for the local conversion of liquid aluminum. Due to high prices and high finished product inventories of processed materials, some enterprises indicated that the rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum would be relatively limited; meanwhile, the cast ingot volume of some companies is expected to return to normal levels. Overall, the national proportion of liquid aluminum in March is expected to rebound by 9.1 percentage points compared with February and also increase from January; the total cast ingot volume in March is projected to remain above 1 million mt, which will continue to push up aluminum ingot inventory. The specific inventory situation is as follows:
Social inventory: As of the first working day after the holiday, the national aluminum social inventory was recorded at 1.108 million mt, largely consistent with pre-holiday inventory forecasts; over the two working days after the holiday, aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated by nearly 50,000 mt, with the buildup level matching expectations.
Finished product inventories at aluminum plants: By the end of February, according to SMM estimates, finished aluminum ingot inventories at aluminum plants had accumulated by 72,500 mt compared with the end of January, and are expected to be gradually sold externally or shipped to social warehouses.
In summary, with cast ingot volumes remaining high in March, demand recovery still requiring time, and finished aluminum ingot inventories from aluminum plants being gradually dispatched—along with piled-up inventory at stations continuously entering warehouses—the post-holiday inventory peak is still projected to reach around 1.35–1.4 million mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

16 hours ago

US-Iran Joint Military Escalation May Pose Multiple Shocks to Global Primary Aluminum Supply Chain [SMM Analysis]

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict has become the major geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing millions of tonnes of supply disruptions and raising smelting costs. Coupled with risk aversion, aluminum price volatility may intensify.

16 hours ago

17 hours ago

US-Iran Joint Military Escalation May Pose Multiple Shocks to Global Primary Aluminum Supply Chain [SMM Analysis]

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict became the largest geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions at a scale of millions of mt, while also pushing up smelting costs. Coupled with market risk-averse sentiment, the volatility of aluminum prices may be amplified. Going forward, it is necessary to remain vigilant against risks such as escalation of conflicts, strait blockades, and raw material supply interruptions, as well as further impacts on aluminum prices from macroeconomic disturbances, and to prudently address the operational and investment risks brought about by fluctuations in the supply chain.

17 hours ago

2026 Overview of Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil Enterprises Resuming Work After Chinese New Year [SMM Analysis]

[SMM Analysis: An Overview of the Resumption of Work for Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil Enterprises After the 2026 Chinese New Year] Looking ahead, as the industry moves past the holiday impact following the Lantern Festival, coupled with the approaching peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" and the "rush to export" window brought about by adjustments in battery export tax rebate policies, the operating rate of the industry is expected to steadily rebound in late March.

17 hours ago