[SMM Analysis] High-Grade NPI Prices Surge on Strong Costs & Fundamentals

Published: Feb 28, 2026 13:57

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[SMM Analysis: Cost and Fundamentals Resonate, High-Grade NPI Prices Rise Rapidly] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose WoW by 26.1 yuan/mtu to 1,071.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesia NPI FOB index price increased WoW by $3.31/mtu to $136.32/mtu. After the Chinese New Year, the high-grade NPI market gradually recovered this week. Supported by both fundamentals and costs, high-grade NPI prices continued to climb.

The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose WoW by 26.1 yuan/mtu to 1,071.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesia NPI FOB index price increased WoW by $3.31/mtu to $136.32/mtu. After the Chinese New Year, the high-grade NPI market gradually recovered this week. Supported by both fundamentals and costs, high-grade NPI prices continued to climb.

Supply side, from February to March 2026, several smelters have maintenance plans for production cuts. Market supply has decreased for several consecutive months. Combined with quota disruptions in the ore sector, expectations for a supply deficit are building. Meanwhile, continuously rising ore prices are driving up production costs, leading to persistently firm offers from upstream enterprises. Demand side, after the Chinese New Year, downstream stainless steel mills resumed work gradually. Although most steel mills are still digesting pre-holiday stockpiles, market procurement volume is recovering slowly. Additionally, with the approach of the traditional peak season "Golden March, Silver April", the market holds optimistic expectations for demand recovery. Overall, although buying and selling in the high-grade NPI market are still recovering, rising costs and supply deficit expectations are rapidly pushing up high-grade NPI prices. Looking ahead, as stainless steel consumption gradually recovers and high-grade NPI production costs remain high, pressured by losses, high-grade NPI prices are expected to have further upside room.

From the perspective of NPI conversion to high-grade nickel matte, post-holiday, refined nickel prices rose MoM, and high-grade NPI prices also increased MoM. The average discount of high-grade NPI to refined nickel widened to 357.88 yuan/mtu. High-grade NPI prices are expected to have further upside room next week, while refined nickel prices are also supported. The average discount of high-grade NPI to refined nickel is expected to continue widening, maintaining the driving force for NPI conversion to high-grade nickel matte.

Based on nickel ore prices from 25 days ago for calculating the cash cost of high-grade NPI, high-grade NPI smelter profits contracted this week. Raw material side, affected by quota disruptions, ore prices from both the Philippines and Indonesia increased, driving a significant rise in the cash production cost of high-grade NPI and increasing cost pressure on smelters. Looking ahead, raw material side, ore prices are expected to have strong support, and auxiliary material prices may also rise MoM following post-holiday work resumption, with smelter production costs expected to remain high.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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