SMM February 26 News:Silicon Metal:In the first working week after the Chinese New Year holiday, downstream users of silicon metal mainly inquired, with limited rigid demand restocking transactions. Trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market offered actively, while silicon enterprises mostly held stable quotes and adopted a wait-and-see attitude compared to pre-holiday levels. As of February 26, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, #441 silicon at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, and #3303 silicon at 10,200-10,400 yuan/mt. On the export side, overseas inquiries were active after the holiday, but competition in export prices remained fierce. In the futures market, the most-traded contract weakened Thursday afternoon, finally settling at 8,335 yuan/mt, with the contract fluctuating between 8,330 and 8,495 yuan/mt during the week. Most silicon enterprises maintained a wait-and-see attitude after the holiday, keeping quotes stable, but with low futures prices, trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market offered actively, and the market transacted on demand.
On the demand side, polysilicon enterprise operating rates remained stable compared to pre-holiday levels. Polysilicon enterprises maintained normal production during the Chinese New Year. A small amount of polysilicon capacity resumed production in March, but the increase was limited, so demand for silicon metal showed mild growth. Silicone enterprise operating rates increased compared to the Chinese New Year period, but the silicone industry operating rate remained relatively low. There is room for a slight increase in the silicone operating rate going forward, and silicon metal consumption is expected to grow steadily. Aluminum alloy enterprise operating rates increased compared to the week before the holiday, with most secondary aluminum alloy enterprises resuming operations between the eighth day of the first lunar month and the Lantern Festival. Over time, the overall operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry is expected to gradually return to pre-holiday normal levels.
Cost side, raw material prices such as silica and silicon coal were basically stable, and silicon metal production costs remained stable. Supply side, silicon enterprise operating rates were basically stable compared to pre-holiday levels. The production resumption time for large plants in Xinjiang was unclear, and the industry still expected an increase in silicon metal supply in March. Demand side, post-holiday operating rates were also gradually recovering. Most inventory in the industry was held by trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market, with low-grade spot prices maintaining a premium structure against futures. Futures fluctuations directly affected spot prices. Recently, silicon metal spot prices are expected to fluctuate at lows, with continued attention to the pace of changes in operating rates on both the supply and demand sides.
Polysilicon:This week, the polysilicon price index was 51.45 yuan/kg, with N-type recharging polysilicon offered at 48-56 yuan/kg and granular polysilicon at 49-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices dipped slightly this week. At the beginning of the work period, influenced by downstream market sentiment, most manufacturers' price expectations lowered, with some directly reducing prices by around 2 yuan. Downstream, affected by costs and futures, prices are expected to drop to around 50 yuan/kg. Some enterprises have not yet officially quoted prices at the initial stage of production resumption, but overall market sentiment is clearly bearish. In March, polysilicon production may increase due to the number of days and the resumption of production at individual bases.
Wafer: Wafer prices remained stable this week, with N-type 183 wafers priced at 1.1-1.15 yuan/piece, 210R wafers quoted at 1.2-1.25 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafers quoted at 1.4-1.45 yuan/piece. The main reason for the stable range of wafer prices this week is that low-priced orders have been digested, and wafer enterprises have entered a wait-and-see period. Currently, raw material prices show a downward trend, and wafer enterprises have recently focused their strategy on reducing procurement costs. At present, enterprises need to use stockpiled materials for production to cover wafer cash costs, but this trend is difficult to sustain long-term. In the short term, wafer prices may follow raw material prices downward. However, after entering March, the trend of battery production increases and module price rises has become increasingly clear, the pace of wafer inventory buildup has slowed, and there may be a slight destocking in March, which will support the rapid consolidation of wafer prices at lows.
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