On February 13, 2026, after a sharp decline in the night session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract remained in the doldrums during the morning, and closed at 371,650 yuan/mt at the midday break, down 5.46%. Overseas, the three-month LME tin also weakened, temporarily quoted at $47,500/mt, a decrease of 0.63%.
The rapid decline in tin prices was primarily triggered by a reversal in sentiment toward global risk assets. Recently, concerns over whether massive investments in the AI sector can deliver returns resurfaced, putting pressure on U.S. tech stocks, and safe-haven sentiment spread to commodities. On Thursday, precious and base metal markets saw simultaneous sell-offs, with gold, silver, and copper prices all falling. Analysis pointed out that this "cliff-like" plunge in the metal markets exhibited clear characteristics of systematic liquidation. Tin, which had previously benefited significantly from the AI computing narrative, faced pressure from capital outflows as sentiment receded.
On the spot market, as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, all segments of the industry chain had largely entered a lull period. According to an SMM survey, the vast majority of downstream enterprises in major solder production regions such as east, south, and north China had already halted production for the holiday. Enterprises that had not officially closed were only engaged in final tasks such as equipment cleaning and inventory counting, with production activities completely suspended. In terms of transactions, as downstream enterprises had completed phased stockpiling during the price correction window in late January, current purchase willingness generally dropped to zero.
In summary, this round of tin price decline resulted from the combined effects of macro sentiment reversal, the fading of the AI narrative, and fund liquidation, with limited connection to short-term fundamental changes. As the Chinese New Year holiday officially begins, the domestic market will enter a roughly two-week lull period. Tin prices are expected to maintain low-volume fluctuations or weak consolidation in the remaining trading sessions before the holiday. Post-holiday, the market will focus on overseas macro data and geopolitical developments during the break, as well as the pace of downstream enterprises' resumption of work and the substantive release of restocking demand.
