[SMM Analysis] Cobalt Market Operates Steadily Before the Holiday, Tight Supply Supports Post-Holiday Bullish Expectations

Refined Cobalt:

The domestic refined cobalt market saw limited overall changes this week, with spot prices rebounding slightly within a low range. Both supply and demand remained mediocre: mainstream smelters' ex-works offers were largely stable; approaching year-end, logistics gradually halted, and inquiries and offers from traders and downstream enterprises basically ceased, resulting in sluggish market trading. Fundamentally, cobalt intermediate products have yet to arrive at ports in large volumes, and the structurally tight supply of upstream raw materials has not fundamentally shifted, continuing to provide some support for cobalt prices. Looking ahead, as market operations gradually resume after the Chinese New Year, downstream restocking demand is expected to be released, and refined cobalt prices are anticipated to retain upside room.

Cobalt Intermediate Products:

The cobalt intermediate products market continued to exhibit a "price without market" pattern this week. Supply side, most intermediate products from miners are still awaiting shipment locally in the DRC, with no resumed external offers, keeping spot cargo supply tight. Demand side, approaching year-end, some smelters entered production line clearing and maintenance shutdowns, leading to significantly weaker raw material purchase willingness, and actual market transactions remained sluggish. Overall, with the timing of large-scale arrivals of cobalt intermediate products at ports still unclear, coupled with escalating geopolitical risks, the structurally tight supply of cobalt raw materials in China may further intensify. Intermediate product prices are expected to maintain upward momentum in the short term, with subsequent focus needed on logistics recovery pace and miner export progress.

Cobalt Sulphate:

The cobalt sulphate market maintained generally sluggish operations this week, with spot prices largely stable. Supply side, nearing the Chinese New Year holiday, most smelters have successively scheduled maintenance shutdowns, reducing spot offers. Meanwhile, boosted by recent positive news from the cobalt ore sector, enterprises' bullish expectations for the future have strengthened, with producers suspending offers and spot cargo supply tightening. Demand side, due to concerns over post-holiday cobalt sulphate price increases, downstream enterprises' purchase willingness recovered somewhat compared to earlier periods, with some small and medium-sized ternary cathode precursor makers actively inquiring. However, with pre-holiday logistics halting imminently, actual transactions remained relatively limited, and overall market trading was subdued. Looking ahead, as logistics resume post-holiday and downstream enterprises gradually restart production and restock, demand is expected to be released progressively. Against the backdrop of phased supply tightening and sustained raw material cost support, cobalt sulphate prices are projected to regain an upward trend.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Cong Wang 021-5166-6838

Rui Ma 021-5159-5780

Disheng Feng 021-5166-6714

Yanlin Lü 021-2070-7875

Wenhao Xiao 021-5166-6872

Haohan Zhang 021-5166-6752

Zihan Wang 021-5166-6914

Jie Wang 021-5159-5902

Yang Xu 021-5166-6760

Lianting Yang 021-5159-5835

Zhaoyu Wang 021-5166-6827