【SMM Aço】Prazo da CBAM da UE Impulsiona Onda de Projetos de Aço DRI com Hidrogênio Verde antes da Implementação em 2026

A tabela a seguir mostra a movimentação de metais ferrosos e não ferrosos na SHFE e na DCE em 6 de novembro de 2026.

[SMM Analysis] Futures Drive Finished Steel and Raw Material Prices Up; Stainless Steel Raw Materials Diverge While Profits Hold Steady This week, stainless steel finished products and various raw materials rose in tandem, with steel mill profits remaining generally stable. Based on 304 cold-rolled calculations, the profit margin from current raw material accounting recovered to 2.47%, while the profit margin from inventory raw material accounting stood at 2.88%. The nickel pig iron segment halted losses and strengthened this week. Driven by higher SS futures, stainless steel finished product prices rose and steel mill profit margins expanded, boosting market sentiment for NPI and increasing inquiries. Coupled with market talk that Indonesia's nickel ore quotas may be further tightened next year, upstream smelters and traders adopted a hold-back-from-selling stance, pushing high-grade NPI prices higher. As of Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesian high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China rose by 9.5 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap also halted losses and strengthened. The rise in SS futures lifted finished products and high-grade NPI, steel mills raised their scrap procurement prices, and scrap quotes followed higher. However, this round of gains was driven more by expectations in futures, while the reverse invoicing policy continued to constrain goods circulation. Actual procurement volumes at steel mills remained limited, and market trading stayed sluggish. The cost advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI provided bottom support, but end-use demand has yet to show substantial improvement, and prices are likely to consolidate on a strong note in the short term. As of Friday, the tax-exclusive price of mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 450 yuan/mt. Chrome-related raw materials diverged from nickel-related materials and scrap, extending their weak downward trend. South African ferrochrome enterprises gradually resumed production, and with China's ferrochrome market already in oversupply, destocking pressure is expected to increase further going forward. Meanwhile, chrome ore prices pulled back, and ferrochrome costs...

Semana a semana, o fio-máquina se manteve em US$ 500/t, a placa em US$ 478/t e o HRC em US$ 515/t FOB, enquanto o tarugo quadrado caiu para US$ 468/t (preço na porta da usina) ante US$ 470/t. O HRC indonésio está em torno de US$ 533/t CFR Surabaya e US$ 532-535/t CFR Vietnã, acima dos US$ 530-533/t da semana passada. Os preços domésticos ficaram praticamente estáveis: fio-máquina em torno de IDR 11.000/kg, vergalhão a IDR 10.000-10.200/kg e GI a IDR 15.000-15.500/kg, enquanto o HRC recuou para IDR 9.900-10.000/kg, com as usinas reduzindo os preços para fechar negócios. O tarugo caiu à medida que as usinas se aproximaram das metas dos compradores, enquanto os vendedores de origem chinesa não mostraram intenção de reduzir ainda mais. No Vietnã, as ofertas mais altas em dólar da Formosa Ha Tinh (US$ 548-561/t CIF) e da Hoa Phat (US$ 559-560/t CIF) estão empurrando os compradores para as importações, embora a entrega em fevereiro da Indonésia seja uma desvantagem em relação ao embarque de dezembro-janeiro da Formosa.