[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices edged up slightly on October 21, while China's GDP in the first three quarters rose 5.2% YoY.

SMM Nickel October 21 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun presided over a regular press conference yesterday. A reporter asked that China and the US will hold a new round of China-US economic and trade consultations, and US President Trump stated that the US has listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues raised by the US towards China. In response, Guo Jiakun said that China's position on handling China-US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear. Tariff wars and trade wars are not in the interest of either side, and both sides should resolve any issues through consultations on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit.

(2) The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data today showing that, based on preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first three quarters was 101.5036 trillion yuan, calculated at constant prices, up 5.2% YoY. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 5,806.1 billion yuan, up 3.8% YoY; the value added of the secondary industry was 36,402 billion yuan, up 4.9% YoY; and the value added of the tertiary industry was 59,295.5 billion yuan, up 5.4% YoY. By quarter, GDP grew 5.4% YoY in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.1% in Q3.

Spot Market:

On October 21, the price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 121,100-123,900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,500 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,400-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,450 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-200 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2511) fluctuated rangebound at high levels during the night session, closing slightly higher at the tail. On the 21st, the SHFE nickel early session opened at 121,270 yuan/mt (up 520 yuan), with the futures maintaining strong performance.

Recent focus should be on US inflation data and US Fed policy signals, while progress in China-US trade talks will also impact the market. Against the backdrop of weak fundamentals and turbulent external conditions, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with the reference range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 120,000-124,000 yuan/mt.