India Lodges WTO Complaint Over US 50% Copper Tariff, LME Copper Fluctuated and Pulled Back Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Thursday, September 4, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $9,986.5/mt overnight, fluctuated downward initially and touched a low of $9,934/mt, then rose all the way and touched a high of $10,006.5/mt during the session, and finally closed at $9,974/mt, down 0.39%, with trading volume reaching 21,000 lots and open interest reaching 281,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2510 contract opened and touched a low of 80,000 yuan/mt overnight, then the center of copper prices gradually moved up and touched a high of 80,430 yuan/mt, then jumped initially and then pulled back and finally closed at 80,260 yuan/mt, up 0.1%, with trading volume reaching 26,000 lots and open interest reaching 191,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On September 2, 2025, India formally submitted a request for consultations to the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the US, challenging its policy of imposing 50% tariffs on Indian copper products. This move marks India's use of multilateral mechanisms to safeguard its export rights, and it is the third WTO consultation action taken against the US following those on steel, aluminum, and auto parts.

(2) Data released by Chilean Customs showed that Chile's copper exports in August were 176,430 mt, with exports to China at 44,803 mt during the month. Chile's exports of copper ore and concentrate in August were 989,009 mt, with exports to China of copper ore and concentrate at 598,266 mt during the month.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On September 3, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2509 contract were reported at premiums of 80-300 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 190 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 80,320-80,720 yuan/mt. SHFE copper futures jumped initially and then pulled back in early trading, briefly touching a high of 80,690 yuan/mt before starting to fall. During the morning trading session, bulls reduced positions and left the market, and the contract closed at 80,190 yuan/mt in the morning, up 350 yuan/mt, or 0.43%. The price spread across months fluctuated between BACK10-BACK30 yuan/mt, and the import loss of SHFE front-month copper expanded to around 300 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, if copper prices stabilize at highs, spot premiums for SHFE copper are unlikely to rise, but recent domestic arrivals remain low, so spot premiums are unlikely to fall significantly, and transactions are expected to be stagnant.

(2) Guangdong: On September 3, spot prices of Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were at 10 yuan/mt to premiums of 70 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 40 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at discounts of 70-50 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 60 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 80,525 yuan/mt, up 605 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 80,425 yuan/mt, up 605 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, copper prices surged significantly, downstream consumption remained sluggish, spot premiums declined, and overall trading activity was weak.

(3) Imported copper: On September 3, warrant prices were $49-63/mt, QP September, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $52-64/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $25-35/mt, QP October, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late September.

(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 3, the futures closing price was 80,190 yuan/mt, up 260 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums/discounts were 190 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 300 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 73,800-74,000 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,763 yuan/mt, down 89 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,210 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, almost no secondary copper rod enterprises in Jiangxi quoted purchase prices for recycled copper raw materials today, as companies were more concerned about potential unnecessary losses after policy implementation. Additionally, some enterprises expect the policy to become clearer around September 10.

(5) Inventory: On September 2, LME copper cathode inventory decreased by 200 mt to 158,575 mt; on September 3, SHFE warrant inventory decreased by 30 mt to 19,471 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, US Fed Governor Waller supported a near-term interest rate cut, nominee Milan pledged to maintain policy independence, and the Beige Book showed economic activity stalled due to tariff impacts. Additionally, OPEC+ considering production increases put international crude oil under pressure, bearish for copper prices. Fundamentally, supply side, imported copper cathode arrived steadily, but domestic production supply remained tight, and spot resources of high-quality copper were still scarce. Demand side, inhibited by copper prices breaking through the 80,000 yuan/mt threshold, downstream purchase willingness significantly weakened, and overall consumption performance was sluggish. Price-wise, considering both macro and fundamental factors, the overall market sentiment was bearish, and copper prices were expected to encounter resistance today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]