Misfortunes Never Come Singly: The Global Supply-Demand Balance of Copper Concentrates After the Mine Earthquake at KK Mine [SMM Analysis]

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       At the end of May, Chinese smelters and Antofagasta commenced mid-year negotiations. In the first round of negotiations this year, miners had already offered smelters a midpoint price of -$15. This figure was significantly lower than the $0/dmt that had circulated in the market in late April. According to SMM, many raw material procurement teams from leading smelters in the CSPT group indicated that the negotiations were fraught with difficulties, and it was exceptionally challenging to secure a favorable figure.

       Coincidentally, a mine tremor occurred at the KK mine in the DRC, directly causing severe damage to production in the Kakula mining area. After the company announced the suspension of underground mining operations at the Kakula copper mine on May 20, 2025, management is advancing production resumptions in phases on the western and eastern sides of the mine. Based on the current drainage progress, underground mining operations are expected to resume on the western side of the mine later this month, with the area currently remaining dry. The mine has already ordered four high-capacity water pumps and will order and deploy more in the future. The delivery and installation of surface water pumps are expected to be completed within 90 days. This week, Ivanhoe Mines released its latest 2025 Kamoa-Kakula copper production guidance of 370,000-420,000 mt in metal content, a 28% decrease from the copper production guidance of 520,000-580,000 mt in metal content released at the beginning of the year.

       Misfortunes never come singly. In early June, a mechanical failure occurred at the Carmen de Andacollo copper mine owned by Teck Resources, requiring the mine to shut down the SAG mill for repairs. Production is expected to be interrupted for about a month due to the repairs. Carmen de Andacollo was expected to produce 50,000 mt in metal content of copper in 2025. Hudbay Minerals stated that due to frequent wildfires in Canadian forests, it has suspended production operations at the Snow Lake polymetallic mine. The miner will resume full production operations when conditions permit. Snow Lake was expected to produce 10,000 mt in metal content of copper in 2025.

       After considering recent supply-side disruptions, SMM updated the latest results of the global supply-demand balance for copper concentrates from sulfide ores.

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