SMM Tin Morning News on June 4, 2025:
Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) experienced a slight pullback after the opening of the night session and then fluctuated rangebound, with the price center moving slightly higher to around 254,000 yuan/mt, up 1.54% from the previous day. Macro: (1) Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian pointed out that, without any factual basis, the US has smeared and accused China, imposed export controls on Chinese chips, suspended the sale of chip design and software to China, and announced the revocation of visas for Chinese students, among other extreme repressive measures. These actions have seriously undermined the Geneva consensus and harmed China's legitimate rights and interests. China firmly opposes this and has lodged solemn representations. (Bearish ★) (2) Five departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, organized the 2025 New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Rural Promotion Campaign. (Bullish ★) (3) WSTS: The global semiconductor market size is expected to reach $700.9 billion in 2025. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - ① The Trump administration raised tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, effective from June 4. ② Sources: The US presented Vietnam with a "long and stringent" list of demands during tariff negotiations. ③ Sources: The EU has not received a letter from the US requesting "best trade offers." ④ Brazilian President: If no agreement on tariffs is reached with the US, Brazil will resort to the WTO or take reciprocal measures. ⑤ The India-EU Free Trade Agreement is accelerating, with consensus reached on nearly half of the issues. (Neutral) Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: The overall supply of tin ore in major producing regions such as Yunnan has tightened. As June approaches, some smelters are considering halting production for maintenance or slightly cutting production. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: Recently, as tin prices hit bottom at 250,000 yuan, orders from most downstream enterprises have picked up, and purchase willingness has increased. (Bullish ★) Spot Market: Price declines have stimulated restocking, and low prices have boosted demand. Downstream enterprises' willingness to restock at lower prices has increased. Some end-users have made just-in-time procurement. Traders reported that transactions were relatively active yesterday, and some traders' inventories have been cleared.
