Import window opened in May, with refined zinc imports remaining high [SMM Analysis]

SMM, May 20:

According to the latest customs data, China's refined zinc imports reached 28,200 mt in April 2025, up 600 mt MoM or 2.4% MoM, but down 38.66% YoY. The cumulative imports of refined zinc from January to April stood at 129,200 mt, a year-on-year decrease of 9.44%. In April, China exported 2,500 mt of refined zinc, resulting in a net import of 25,700 mt of refined zinc for the month.

The top three countries for refined zinc imports in April were Kazakhstan (20,700 mt, accounting for 73.35%), Australia (4,800 mt, accounting for 16.9%), and India (1,900 mt, accounting for 6.78%). From the perspective of country-specific data, there was a significant increase in zinc ingot imports from Kazakhstan. In terms of trade mode, Ordinary Trade accounted for approximately 87% of the imports. This was mainly due to the intermittent opening of the import window in April, which provided opportunities for spot order imports, keeping zinc ingot imports at a high level.

Entering May, with the easing of the Sino-US trade dispute on the macro front, market sentiment has somewhat improved. However, concerns over weak US economic data have offset the earlier optimism from tariff reductions, increasing fears of a US economic recession and weakening overseas sentiment. On the fundamentals side, due to smelters' expectations for production increases in the future and the resulting procurement and stocking demand, domestic ore TCs struggled to rise in May. However, with expectations for an increase in imported ore, import TCs have increased somewhat, maintaining an overall high level. Against the backdrop of smelter maintenance in China in May, spot cargo arrivals have fallen short, keeping social inventory at a low level and providing bottom support for zinc prices. Coupled with the current easing of trade disputes and expectations for a rush in exports from some downstream sectors, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio has risen, opening the refined zinc import window. As a result, imported zinc ingots from overseas have flowed in, and imports are expected to increase to around 35,000 mt.

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