The price of alumina experienced a slight rebound, while the short-term aluminum price maintained a fluctuating trend. [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief]

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SMM April 17 News:

Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2506 contract opened at 1,635 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,720 yuan/mt, a low of 19,625 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,645 yuan/mt, up 0.05%. The trading volume was 97,300 lots, and the open interest was 218,000 lots.

SMM Review: On the macro front, yesterday, the US White House imposed a tariff hike of 245% on certain Chinese goods, to which China responded with indifference. Although the market expressed concerns, there was no widespread panic. Recently, due to the tariff issue, both US inflation and unemployment rates have risen. Under dual pressure, Fed Chairman Powell stated that more definitive data is needed before considering the next interest rate cut, leaving the monetary policy outlook uncertain. On the supply side, although the operating capacity of aluminum increased in April, the domestic capacity ceiling limited significant growth. Weekly aluminum ingot inventory dropped sharply by 35,000 mt, and the accelerated destocking continues to provide strong support for the bottom of aluminum prices. On the demand side, the market showed a wait-and-see sentiment under the tariff impact, but new orders from end-users increased slightly after the aluminum price decline, and the purchasing power of processing enterprises rebounded, with aluminum outflows from warehouses performing well. Overall, the rebound in non-ferrous metals was supported by easing macro sentiment, and the continuous destocking of aluminum inventory underpinned aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices maintained a fluctuating trend, and future attention should be paid to tariff policy adjustments and the export situation of aluminum semis and end-users. Today, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,825 mt or 0.65%, and the accelerated destocking continues to provide strong support for the bottom of aluminum prices. On the demand side, the market showed a wait-and-see sentiment under the tariff impact, but new orders from end-users increased slightly after the aluminum price decline, and the purchasing power of processing enterprises rebounded, with aluminum outflows from warehouses performing well. Overall, the rebound in non-ferrous metals was supported by easing macro sentiment, and the continuous destocking of aluminum inventory underpinned aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices maintained a fluctuating trend, and future attention should be paid to tariff policy adjustments and the export situation of aluminum semis and end-users.

Today, the most-traded SHFE alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,872 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,910 yuan/mt, a low of 2,872 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,884 yuan/mt, up 0.45%. The trading volume was 130,000 lots, and the open interest was 168,000 lots.

SMM Review: Due to the concentrated maintenance of alumina refineries in April, the operating capacity of alumina continued to decline, dropping to 82.88 million mt/year this week. The tightening of alumina supply in the short term slowed the decline in alumina prices, and there was a slight rebound in northern alumina prices. However, as maintenance gradually ends and new capacities come online, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to rebound, and the expectation of a looser alumina supply remains. In the short term, alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuating adjustments.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]