At the Beginning of 2025, Imports of Refined Zinc Increase Beyond Expectations Will This Trend Continue? [SMM Analysis]

Published: Mar 20, 2025 14:34

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Refined Zinc Imports Exceed Expectations at the Start of 2025, Will the Trend Continue? According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in January 2025 were 39,700 mt, up 4,600 mt MoM and up 14,600 mt YoY. Refined zinc exports in January were 4,800 mt, resulting in a net import of 34,900 mt for the month. In February, refined zinc imports were 33,700 mt, down 6,100 mt or 15% MoM, and up 8,500 mt YoY. Cumulative refined zinc imports for January-February were 73,400 mt, up 45.88% YoY. Refined zinc exports in February were 400 mt, leading to a net import of 33,300 mt for the month.

SMM March 20 Report: According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in January 2025 were 39,700 mt, up 4,600 mt MoM and up 14,600 mt YoY. Refined zinc exports in January were 4,800 mt, resulting in a net import of 34,900 mt. In February, refined zinc imports were 33,700 mt, down 6,100 mt or 15% MoM, and up 8,500 mt YoY. Cumulative refined zinc imports for January-February were 73,400 mt, up 45.88% YoY. Refined zinc exports in February were 400 mt, leading to a net import of 33,300 mt.

The top three countries for refined zinc imports in January were Kazakhstan (39.61%), Australia (17.56%), and Iran (9.19%). In February, the top three were Australia (46.13%), Kazakhstan (41.44%), and Iran (5.46%).

In terms of country-specific import data, Kazakhstan and Australia remained in the lead, while imports from Iran, India, Spain, and Finland increased MoM. Regarding trade modes, Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area accounted for over 35% of total imports in January and over 50% in February, with more goods flowing out from bonded areas. Additionally, the import window briefly opened in January, leading to a slight increase in spot orders, making the overall refined zinc import data for January and February higher than expected.

Entering March, overseas macro sentiment fluctuated, with the US dollar weakening, providing fundamental support to non-ferrous metals. Fundamentals side, Trafigura Nyrstar announced a 25% production cut at its Hobart zinc smelter in Australia, which produces around 250,000 mt annually, starting from April, reducing overseas supply. Meanwhile, LME inventory continued to decline, with the LME zinc warrant cancellation ratio remaining above 40%, indicating a stronger LME zinc price. Domestically, post-policy verification, high levels of zinc concentrate imports and the resumption of northern mines improved overall ore supply. Processing fees rose to over 3,200 yuan/mt (metal content). Refined zinc production in February was 481,000 mt, with an estimated 540,000 mt in March. Coupled with rising sulphuric acid prices, smelter profits increased, and planned maintenance was postponed, leading to continuous supply growth. On the demand side, consumption is still gradually recovering, and the increase in demand cannot fully match the supply increase, resulting in relatively weaker SHFE zinc prices. Overall, it is expected that under the scenario of LME outperforming SHFE, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio will continue to fall, and the import window will remain closed, with refined zinc imports potentially dropping to around 20,000 mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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