Aluminum Plate/Sheet and Strip Exports Declined as Expected, Future Prospects Remain Promising [SMM Analysis]

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SMM January 26, 2025:

According to the latest customs data, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in December 2024 totaled 263,400 mt, down 19% MoM and up 8% YoY. Cumulative aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in 2024 reached 3.4256 million mt, up 24% YoY. The significant YoY increase was mainly due to overseas customers depleting their raw material inventories to relatively low levels, a rebound in purchase willingness, and a partial recovery in demand from some overseas end-use markets compared to 2023.

By country, December's aluminum plate/sheet and strip export destinations remained relatively stable, with Mexico, Vietnam, South Korea, the US, the UAE, and Indonesia consistently ranking among the top. The combined export volume to these six countries in December was 135,000 mt, accounting for approximately 43.47% of the total aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports.

By province, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang remained the main contributors to aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in December. The top five exporting provinces collectively exported 193,400 mt of aluminum plate/sheet and strip in December, accounting for approximately 73.42% of the total exports.

SMM believes that after mid-January, domestic logistics efficiency will decline as the Chinese New Year approaches, and aluminum plate/sheet and strip export volumes are expected to decrease MoM. However, the long-term overseas demand base remains, and demand for aluminum plate/sheet and strip products such as packaging materials is relatively stable. Supported by this demand, aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in January 2025 are expected to remain flat or see a slight decline.

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