Due to the commissioning of some alumina refineries, the operating capacity of alumina reached a new high in January [SMM Analysis]

SMM  January 24—

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in January 2025 (31 days) increased 1.63% MoM and was up 12.85% YoY. As of January 24, China's metallurgical-grade alumina existing capacity stood at approximately 104.02 million mt, with operating capacity up 1.43% MoM and an operating rate of 86.69%. During the month, a new production line at an alumina refinery in Shandong Province commenced operation, with output expected by late January or early February. Other regions mostly maintained stable operations. Additionally, alumina supply and demand shifted to a surplus during the month, leading to a rapid pullback in prices. Currently, no large-scale production cuts for alumina have been reported, and the spot market is expected to remain relatively well-supplied in the short term, with prices likely to continue their downward trend.

Forecast for Next Month: SMM has learned that domestic alumina refineries currently have no large-scale maintenance plans. Coupled with increased ore supply as Guinea's rainy season ends, China's metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity is expected to reach 90.43 million mt/year in February. On the raw material side, there is no further news on the resumption of domestic ore production, and supply remains tight. For imported ore, data from January 17 shows that weekly port arrivals of bauxite at domestic ports totaled 2.69 million mt, down 1.54 million mt from the previous week. Weekly port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totaled 3.88 million mt, up 1.55 million mt from the previous week, while weekly port departures from Australia's main ports totaled 900,000 mt, up 40,000 mt from the previous week. This indicates that the impact of the rainy season has subsided, leading to a rebound in domestic bauxite port arrivals, which supports the high operating capacity of alumina in the future. SMM will continue to monitor the ramp-up pace of new and resumed alumina capacity.