Recently, according to frontline survey statistics from SMM, the Q4 shipments of alkaline electrolyzers were approximately 192.2MW. Compared to the over 235.5MW delivered in Q3, the Q3 alkaline electrolyzer deliveries declined by more than 15%. This data reflects the current state of the alkaline electrolyzer market and also indicates future market trends.
Q4 Shipment Analysis
According to the latest data, the Q4 2024 shipments of alkaline electrolyzers were 192.2MW. Compared to 235.5MW in Q2, the decline reached 18.28%. This data reflects a phase of market demand adjustment, potentially influenced by multiple factors such as the macroeconomic environment, policy orientation, and dynamics across the industry chain.
Entering Q4, shipment trends showed divergence. Some top-tier enterprises achieved shipments exceeding 30MW, a significant increase compared to the Q3 peak of 20MW, with growth rates ranging from 15%-20%. This performance was attributed to their products' superior safety and stability, which gained favor from project owners. However, some companies continued the sluggish performance seen in Q2 and Q3, with no alkaline electrolyzer deliveries during the quarter. Additionally, while some mid-tier enterprises had sporadic shipments, 2-3MW per quarter still maintained a certain market presence.
Analysis of Q4 Shipment Decline Reasons
The reduction in Q4 electrolyzer deliveries, from a macro perspective, was primarily influenced by downward pressure in the macroeconomic environment. The hydrogen energy sector as a whole entered a loss-making phase, slowing the construction of green hydrogen projects and reducing the number of electrolyzer tenders. From the perspective of the industry chain, project owners placed greater emphasis on the safety and stability of products when selecting electrolyzer suppliers, favoring partnerships with top-tier enterprises. This further intensified the trend of market share concentration, squeezing the survival space for mid-tier enterprises.
Q4 Technology Path and Capacity Analysis
In terms of technology paths, 1,000Nm³/h electrolyzers continued to dominate, accounting for over 90% of total deliveries. However, it is noteworthy that Q4 also saw the delivery of 1,200Nm³/h and 2,000Nm³/h models, marking a gradual market acceptance of large-scale, high-efficiency electrolyzer technology. This became a major highlight of Q4 2024.
On the capacity side, most companies maintained their previous capacity levels in Q4. The commissioning of some new production lines led to an overall industry capacity increase of 1-2GW, reaching 35.77GW. This indicates that despite a slowdown in market demand, the electrolyzer industry is actively preparing for the future, reserving capacity to respond to potential market rebounds.
Annual Shipment Summary and Future Outlook
In 2024, the total annual shipments of alkaline electrolyzers reached 1,044.51MW, remaining basically flat compared to 2023 and falling short of some institutions' earlier forecasts of 2,000MW. This outcome suggests that after an initial phase of rapid growth, the electrolyzer and green hydrogen industries are gradually returning to rationality, with the industry's center shifting towards technological improvement and cost control.
Looking ahead to 2025, with the deepening of global energy transition and continuous breakthroughs in hydrogen energy technology, the alkaline electrolyzer market is expected to embrace new development opportunities. SMM will release a detailed 2024 review and 2025 forecast report after the Chinese New Year, incorporating information on electrolyzer orders and green hydrogen project progress. We anticipate that with the joint efforts of all industry stakeholders, the electrolyzer sector can achieve healthier and more sustainable development.
Conclusion
The changes in Q4 2024 alkaline electrolyzer shipments reflect the industry's adjustment phase and are the result of technological iteration and market selection. Facing future uncertainties, electrolyzer companies need to maintain strategic focus, enhance technological innovation, and improve product competitiveness to jointly promote the prosperity and development of the hydrogen energy industry. Please stay tuned for more exciting updates.
Written by: SMM Hydrogen Energy Analyst Xin Shi - 13515219405 (WeChat available). If you are also interested in hydrogen energy, feel free to contact me. Let’s discuss and look forward to the industry's development together.
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