Silicon Wafer Prices Temporarily Stable; February Silicon Wafer Production Schedule Expected to Increase [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, January 24:

Silica

Prices

This week, silica prices remained stable. With the Chinese New Year approaching, transportation capacity continued to tighten, and mine-mouth safety management strengthened. As a result, recent order shipments from mines were limited. Additionally, downstream silicon metal manufacturers had mostly stockpiled sufficient silica raw materials for winter earlier, and domestic silicon metal production remained at low levels recently. Therefore, downstream silica procurement enthusiasm is expected to recover significantly around March. Currently, the mine-mouth price of low-grade silica in Yunnan is 340-360 yuan/mt. The mine-mouth price of high-grade silica is 360-390 yuan/mt in Inner Mongolia, 420-450 yuan/mt in Hubei, and 440-460 yuan/mt in Jiangxi.

Supply and Demand

Supply: Overall mine supply is relatively ample, but production has mostly paused recently due to tight transportation capacity and strengthened pre-holiday management.

Demand: Pre-holiday demand from downstream silicon metal manufacturers remained weak, and overall raw material restocking demand is expected to recover significantly around March.

Silicon Metal

Prices

This week, spot silicon metal prices remained stable. Yesterday, the delivery-to-factory price of above-standard #553 silicon metal in east China was 10,800-10,900 yuan/mt. In the futures market, the most-traded contract reached a high of 10,940 yuan/mt on Monday and closed at 10,755 yuan/mt yesterday.

Production

Based on supply-demand balance calculations, the silicon metal supply surplus in December was approximately 20,000 mt. In January, both supply and demand for silicon metal continued to show weakness, with supply and demand expected to remain roughly balanced.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of January 17, the national social inventory of silicon metal totaled 539,000 mt, up 3,000 mt WoW. Among this, general social warehouses held 151,000 mt, down 1,000 mt WoW, while social delivery warehouses held 388,000 mt (including unregistered warehouse warrants and spot cargo), up 4,000 mt WoW.

Silicon Wafer

Prices

The market price for N-type 18X silicon wafers was 1.18-1.18 yuan/piece, and for N-type 210RN silicon wafers, it was 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece. Silicon wafer prices remained stable yesterday, with downstream order-taking capacity still limited.

Production

Currently, the probability of increased silicon wafer production in February is high, with several integrated enterprises planning production increases.

Inventory

Silicon wafer inventory has started to rise gradually, mainly due to a sharp decline in downstream purchases.

Solar Cell

Prices

The price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (23.2% efficiency and above) was 0.325-0.34 yuan/W. There were no transactions in the PERC210 solar cell market.

The price of Topcon183 solar cells (25% efficiency and above) was around 0.285-0.295 yuan/W; Topcon210RN solar cells were priced at 0.28-0.285 yuan/W; and Topcon210 solar cells were priced at 0.285-0.295 yuan/W. Pre-holiday prices are expected to remain stable.

The mainstream price of HJT210 half-cell products was 0.36-0.38 yuan/W. Pre-holiday prices are expected to remain stable.

Production

Some Topcon solar cell production bases have already shut down for the holiday and are expected to resume operations after mid-February. Recently, there has been a slight production cut in 210RN solar cells.

Inventory

Weaker shipments have led to continued inventory increases.

PV Film

Prices

EVA/POE PV-Grade Materials

The transaction price of PV-grade EVA was 10,400-10,700 yuan/mt. The domestic delivery-to-factory price of PV-grade POE was approximately 12,000-13,500 yuan/mt, with POE prices remaining stable.

PV Film

Prices

PV-Grade EVA

The transaction price of PV-grade EVA was 10,600-10,900 yuan/mt. The domestic delivery-to-factory price of PV-grade POE was approximately 12,000-13,500 yuan/mt, with POE prices remaining stable.

PV Film

Currently, the mainstream price of 420g transparent EVA film is 5.29-5.46 yuan/m², 420g white EVA film is 5.67-6.05 yuan/m², 380g EPE film is 5.79-5.89 yuan/m², and 380g POE film is 6.84-7.22 yuan/m².

Production

In January, the planned production of PV-grade EVA was approximately 90,000 mt, while the planned production of PV film was approximately 350 million m².

Inventory

The January production of PV-grade materials fell short of expectations, amplifying post-holiday bullish sentiment and stockpiling demand. The market still faces tight spot supply, with most petrochemical plants' February PV-grade production already pre-sold.