December Secondary Copper Raw Material Imports Exceeded Expectations; How Will They Perform in the Coming Month? [SMM Analysis]

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         According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap in December 2024 reached 217,500 mt, up 25% MoM and up 9% YoY. This marks the first return to this high level since the record highs in March and April 2024. The total imports for 2024 amounted to 2.25 million mt, up 13.26% YoY. (HS code 74040000)

       Customs data showed that imports of secondary copper raw material in December exhibited better-than-expected growth both MoM and YoY, with the increase mainly coming from the US and Japan. According to customs data, the US exported 43,900 mt of copper scrap (copper scrap and shredded copper scrap) to China in December, up 30% MoM and up 27% YoY. Japan exported 28,600 mt of copper scrap (copper scrap and shredded copper scrap) to China in December, up 39% MoM but down 11% YoY.

       Regarding import profit and loss, secondary copper raw material imports were mostly in a loss-making state in October, briefly turning profitable by the end of the month. In November, the import window remained open, copper prices were stable, and traders maintained normal purchasing activities. However, by late November, due to the impact of Trump's election, import traders in Ningbo suspended purchases of US-origin goods. Notably, according to SMM, the significant increase in December's customs clearance volume can partly be attributed to stricter customs inspections starting in November, which delayed clearance. Many shipments arriving at the end of November were only cleared by mid-December, contributing to the better-than-expected import performance in December.

       Looking ahead, although the import window remained open in December, market conditions showed tight supply flows and year-end financial pressure, leading to weak stockpiling willingness among traders and enterprises. Entering January, the import window turned to a loss-making state again, downstream enterprises began their holidays, and demand remained sluggish. Additionally, with the Trump administration taking office, tariff policies remain uncertain. Therefore, the import volume of secondary copper raw material is expected to decline next month. (Below are the December country-specific import data)