Consumption Weakens Combined with Macro Impact, SHFE Zinc Maintains Fluctuating Trend [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

Overnight, Trump was officially sworn in as the US President, mentioning topics such as tariffs, energy, and green policies, without touching on cryptocurrencies. US media reported that Trump would not impose new tariffs on his first day in office. Houthi forces stated they would continue attacking vessels linked to Israel. The head of the Israeli Defense Forces said a "major operation" is expected to be launched soon in the West Bank. Putin stated that Russia is willing to engage in dialogue with the US government on the Ukraine situation. President Xi Jinping emphasized that by 2025, more proactive and effective macro policies should be implemented to promote high-level technological self-reliance and strength. Vice Premier He Lifeng stressed the importance of vigorously implementing urban renewal and advancing key urban renewal tasks in a strong, orderly, and effective manner. Offshore yuan surged 750 points against the US dollar during the day, recovering to 7.27.

Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,941.5/mt, with bulls and bears engaging in a tug-of-war. The center of LME zinc fluctuated around $2,935/mt. During the European trading session, bears increased positions, causing the center of LME zinc to rise slightly before quickly pulling back to a low of $2,925/mt. Entering the night session, LME zinc climbed rapidly to a high of $2,986/mt before gradually pulling back, ultimately closing higher at $2,957/mt, up $12.5/mt or 0.42%. Trading volume decreased to 70,864 lots, while open interest increased by 3,352 lots to 223,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the 40-day moving average forming resistance above and the 5/10-day moving averages providing support below. LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,225 mt to 199,125 mt overnight, a decline of 1.11%. Trump did not mention imposing higher tariffs during his inauguration ceremony yesterday, and the US dollar index fell. US media also reported that Trump would not impose new tariffs on his first day in office. LME zinc rose slightly and is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2503 contract opened at 24,230 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc edged downward to a low of 24,155 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased positions, driving SHFE zinc to fluctuate upward and reach a high of 24,420 yuan/mt. Later, bulls took profits and exited, causing SHFE zinc to fluctuate downward, ultimately closing higher at 24,310 yuan/mt, up 95 yuan/mt or 0.39%. Trading volume decreased to 79,416 lots, while open interest fell by 1,884 lots to 101,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the 20/60-day moving averages forming resistance above and the 5/10-day moving averages providing support below. As the off-season for downstream consumption approaches, spot premiums/discounts in various markets are gradually declining, and domestic inventory is gradually increasing. However, influenced by Trump's yet-to-be-announced tariff policies, SHFE zinc is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.