December Imported Copper Cathode Exceeds Expectations with Over 3.7 Million mt Expected for 2024 Annual Imports [SMM Analysis]

》Check SMM Copper Prices, Data, and Market Analysis

》Subscribe to View SMM Historical Spot Metal Prices

》Click to Access the SMM Copper Industry Chain Database

SMM, January 20:

        According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported a total of 3.7388 million mt of copper cathode in 2024, up 6.49% YoY. Among this, December imports reached 370,400 mt, up 2.93% MoM and 18.88% YoY. In 2024, China exported a total of 457,500 mt of copper cathode, up 63.86% YoY. Among this, December exports reached 16,700 mt, up 44.06% MoM and 55.61% YoY.

        From the import side, December copper cathode imports totaled 370,400 mt, up 2.93% MoM and 6.49% YoY. Among this, imports from the DRC reached 163,100 mt, up 30.21% MoM, accounting for 44.05% of total imports. In mid-to-late December, the SHFE/LME price ratio opened significantly, leading to improved transactions in the US dollar copper market and a large volume of port arrivals being imported. Additionally, the cancellation of the copper semis export tax rebate policy, which was implemented in December, increased downstream processing enterprises' demand for imported copper.

        From the export side, October copper cathode exports totaled 16,700 mt, rebounding from November on a MoM basis. The main growth came from Vietnam and Taiwan, China. Since the export window remained closed, domestic smelters showed limited proactive export activity.

        Looking ahead, SMM expects copper cathode imports in January 2025 to decline MoM from December 2024. On one hand, December-January is the peak negotiation period for US dollar copper long-term contracts, and shipments are expected to be executed starting February 2025 after contracts are finalized. Shipment volumes in January-February are relatively low. On the other hand, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching in January, port arrivals before and after the holiday are expected to decrease due to logistics arrangements. Overall, copper cathode imports in January 2025 are likely to decline MoM from December 2024. On the export side, the export profit window in January remains closed, and domestic smelters are expected to show limited proactive export activity. Copper cathode export volumes in January are expected to remain basically flat.