Chinese New Year Holiday Approaching, PV Segment Prices Stabilize [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, January 20:

Silicon Metal

Prices

Last week, spot silicon metal prices continued to weaken. On Friday, the above-standard #553 silicon metal in east China was priced at 10,800-10,900 yuan/mt. Silicon futures contract Si2503 fluctuated upward, influenced by macro funds and sentiment. This week, the spot silicon metal market is expected to see more sluggish transactions, with silicon prices stabilizing.

Production

In January, silicon metal supply and demand both remained weak, with monthly production expected to drop to around 300,000 mt.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of January 17, the national social inventory of silicon metal totaled 539,000 mt, up 3,000 mt WoW. Among this, general social warehouses held 151,000 mt, down 1,000 mt WoW, while social delivery warehouses held 388,000 mt (including unregistered warehouse warrants and spot cargo), up 4,000 mt WoW. (This inventory data excludes regions such as Inner Mongolia and Ningxia.)

Polysilicon

Prices

By the weekend, the price of N-type recharging polysilicon was 39-45 yuan/kg, and N-type dense polysilicon was 38-42 yuan/kg. As the Chinese New Year approached, market transactions were mediocre, with downstream wait-and-see sentiment prevailing. Prices remained stable, and transaction prices are expected to stay around 42 yuan.

Production

In February, some second- and third-tier enterprises are expected to increase production, with polysilicon production schedules projected to exceed 90,000 mt. However, due to fewer days in February, production is expected to decrease by approximately 2,000-3,000 mt MoM.

Inventory

This week, as market transactions and order signing gradually declined, polysilicon inventory increased.

Modules

Prices

In the current module market, the mainstream transaction price for N-type 182mm modules in centralized projects was 0.64-0.69 yuan/W, while N-type 210mm modules were priced at 0.65-0.7 yuan/W. The price range for centralized market spot cargo remained stable, while distributed market transaction prices showed signs of slight downward adjustments. Prices were largely stable before the holiday.

Production

Demand entered the off-season in Q1, with most enterprises planning to lower operating rates and produce based on demand. Operating rates for modules in January-February are expected to remain low, with production schedules anticipated to rise in March.

Inventory

Year-end inventory saw some reduction, but overall inventory levels remained at 1-1.5 months.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Prices

Last week, some sand enterprises raised their quotations. Currently, domestic inner-layer sand is priced at 60,000-75,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 30,000-45,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 19,000-25,000 yuan/mt. Domestic market transactions were sluggish last week, and spot order volumes from imported sand traders also declined. Prices remained stable before the holiday.

Production

Over the past week, domestic supply showed little change. This week, several sand enterprises are planning to halt production for the holiday, and supply is expected to continue decreasing during the Chinese New Year holiday.

Inventory

With price increases and the upcoming holiday, crucible enterprises reduced purchases, leading to an increase in inventory.

PV Glass

Prices

3.2mm Single-Layer Coating: The price of 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was 19.5-20.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

3.2mm Double-Layer Coating: The price of 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was 20.5-21.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

2.0mm Single-Layer Coating: The price of 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was 11.5-12.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

2.0mm Double-Layer Coating: The price of 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was 12.5-13.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

Production

During the Chinese New Year holiday, glass kilns continued normal production. However, due to the impact of previous cold repairs on kilns, overall production in January is expected to decrease compared to December.

Inventory

As module enterprises halted production for the holiday, demand weakened, and glass shipments began to decline. Inventory is expected to increase by 1-2 days.