The Impact of Australia's Rainy Season Begins to Emerge, Weekly Average Port Departures of Australian Ore Decrease Compared to the Previous Period [SMM Analysis]

SMM January 12 News:

According to data from January 10, the weekly total arrivals of bauxite at domestic ports reached 4.2288 million mt, a decrease of 139,400 mt compared to the previous week. The weekly total port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports were 2.3339 million mt, down by 1.2899 million mt from the previous week, while the weekly total port departures of bauxite from Australia's main ports were 861,400 mt, an increase of 263,500 mt from the previous week.

As of now, there has been no substantial or significant impact observed on Guinea's bauxite shipments due to the protests in Guinea, but continuous attention is warranted as risks to Guinea's bauxite supply remain. The impact of Australia's rainy season on bauxite supply is gradually increasing. Over the past two weeks, the average weekly port departures of bauxite from Australian ports were 710,000 mt/week, down by 230,000 mt/week compared to the average weekly shipments of 940,000 mt/week in December and down by 360,000 mt/week compared to the average weekly shipments of 1.07 million mt/week in November. It is expected that China's bauxite imports from Australia in January will decrease.

SMM Comments: Although the supply of Australian bauxite may decline due to the rainy season, the rebound in Guinea's bauxite shipments in November-December 2024 is expected to lead to a significant increase in Guinea's bauxite supply in January, with the growth expected to exceed the reduction in Australian bauxite supply. The supply of bauxite is anticipated to show an increasing trend, with the average weekly total arrivals of bauxite at ports in the first two weeks of January reaching 4.3 million mt/week, up by 870,000 mt/week compared to 3.43 million mt/week in December 2024. However, with the accelerated decline in alumina prices and the significant contraction in alumina profit margins, downstream buying sentiment for bauxite has become more cautious, and the acceptance of high-priced bauxite has weakened. The prices of imported bauxite may enter a short-term consolidation phase.

(The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)

Data Source: SMM Click on the SMM Industry Database for more information

(Mingxin Guo 021-51595800)