High-Carbon Ferrochrome Market 2024 Review and 2025 Outlook [SMM Analysis]

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Extended Decline, Stainless Steel Spot Followed Lower with Sluggish Trading According to SMM on June 25, SS futures extended their decline and weakened. Non-ferrous metals futures continued their downtrend, and combined with the impact of yesterday’s Indonesian nickel ore quota news, SS futures fell further. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,640 yuan/mt. In the spot market, pressured by the ongoing decline in futures and the arrival of the traditional consumption off-season, the sluggish trading situation was hard to reverse, and traders showed a strong willingness to sell. Although a mainstream stainless steel mill kept its guidance price unchanged in the morning, spot quotes still fell along with futures, and trading remained sluggish. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was reported at 14,600 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 370-970 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil remained flat; cold-rolled 304/2B coil with mill edge saw its average price fall by 50 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 50 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi dropped by 100 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot swung wildly. Macro expectations outside China repeatedly disrupted the futures, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market. Overall, the pattern was one of macros driving futures trends, trading fluctuating with sentiment, supply tightening supporting spot, inventory remaining stable, and profits seeing a minor recovery...

A Comissão Europeia publicou o Regulamento (UE) 2026/1384, que estabelece o regime de comércio de aço da UE, com entrada em vigor a 1 de julho de 2026, substituindo as medidas de salvaguarda que expiram a 30 de junho. O novo quadro fixa contingentes pautais anuais de 18,3 milhões de toneladas, com um direito extracontingente de 50%, e introduz uma exigência de origem de fusão e vazamento para coibir a elisão. Crucialmente, as alocações de quotas por país ainda não estão definidas: serão estabelecidas através de um ato de execução separado, ainda não publicado, enquanto prosseguem as conversações com vários parceiros de acordos de livre comércio. Esta lacuna deixa importadores e cadeias de abastecimento incertos quanto ao funcionamento do sistema de quotas desde o primeiro dia, estando as siderúrgicas de aço inoxidável entre os que aguardam a repartição final por país.

De acordo com as estatísticas da SMM, tanto os estoques nas usinas quanto os estoques no mercado apresentaram diferentes graus de acúmulo. O estoque total de materiais de construção atingiu 8,0193 milhões de toneladas, um aumento de 226.600 toneladas ou 2,91% em relação ao mês anterior, sinalizando o surgimento de um ponto de inflexão nos estoques.