[SMM HRC Daily Review] Bearish Sentiment Partially Digested, HRC Prices May Stabilize Next Week

Today, the most-traded HRC futures contract continued its downward trend but began to rebound near the close, settling at 3,313 yuan, down 0.58%. On the spot side, HRC prices fell mainly by 10-20 yuan/mt during the day. Supply side, this week’s HRC production saw a significant increase of 98,600 mt WoW, leading to greater supply pressure. Demand side, futures showed a weak trend, with downstream end-use demand remaining cautious. Coupled with the approach of year-end, seasonal weakening in downstream demand is hard to reverse. This week, total inventory reached 4.219 million mt, up 67,800 mt WoW. Overall, the imbalance in HRC fundamentals is gradually accumulating. However, the extent of accumulation has not exceeded expectations, and with bearish sentiment partially digested, the downside for the most-traded HRC futures contract is expected to be limited in the short term. Once bearish sentiment is fully absorbed, prices may stabilize.