SHFE Aluminum's Center Quickly Shifted Upward Today as Alumina Prices Bottomed Out and Rebounded [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review]

》Check SMM Aluminum Product Prices, Data, and Market Analysis

SMM, January 9:

The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2502 contract opened at 19,670 yuan/mt today, with an intraday high of 20,000 yuan/mt and a low of 19,610 yuan/mt, closing at 19,945 yuan/mt, up 1.06%. Trading volume was 143,000 lots, and open interest was 119,000 lots.

SMM Comments: On the macro front, the Chinese government continues to boost consumption, while uncertainty over the US Fed's interest rate cut pace has increased. Fundamentals side, although several aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Guangxi reduced production in December, and some capacity resumption progress stalled, production still showed positive YoY growth. Demand side, market demand continued to weaken during the off-season, with operating rates in the aluminum processing industry declining steadily. Some aluminum processing plants are nearing holiday shutdowns, and social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum billets are building up. Overall, on the fundamentals side, supply-side pressure has slightly eased, but weak demand during the off-season and the growing risk of inventory buildup persist. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate downward. In the long term, attention should focus on the US Fed's future stance on interest rate cuts and changes in the pace of consumption recovery.

The most-traded alumina 2502 contract opened at 4,123 yuan/mt, reached a high of 4,156 yuan/mt and a low of 4,029 yuan/mt, and closed at 4,123 yuan/mt, down 1.79%. Trading volume was 226,000 lots, and open interest was 96,000 lots.

SMM Comments: Recently, weekly operating rates of alumina showed a slight rebound, with a small increase in alumina supply. As technological transformations and production cuts at aluminum smelters in Guangxi and Sichuan progressed, alumina demand slightly declined, and the previously tight alumina supply situation improved. By the end of December, alumina raw material inventories at aluminum smelters had slightly rebounded, while downstream restocking and purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Acceptance of high-priced spot alumina decreased, and reports of low-priced spot transactions emerged in various regions, especially in Shanxi and Henan, where spot alumina transaction prices continued to decline. Suppliers' willingness to sell increased, and spot alumina prices are likely to continue their downward trend in the short term.

【The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.】