US Fed Interest Rates Remain High; Zinc Prices Show Mixed Changes in Domestic and Overseas Markets This Week [SMM Market Review - Weekly Price Commentary]

SMM, January 3:

LME Zinc: At the beginning of the week, LME zinc rose slightly but maintained a fluctuating trend due to uncertainties surrounding the policies of the incoming Trump administration. Subsequently, the US November Pending Home Sales Index recorded a month-on-month increase of 2.2%, exceeding the expected 0.7%, while the US December Dallas Fed Business Activity Index also surpassed expectations, recording 3.4. Both figures exceeded forecasts, leading to a decline in LME zinc. Following this, overseas inventories continued to decrease, supporting a slight rebound in LME zinc. However, as the US Fed maintained interest rates at levels higher than other central banks, the US dollar index reached a two-year high, causing LME zinc to decline further. LME zinc was then closed for one day due to the New Year holiday. Subsequently, influenced by the continued reduction in overseas zinc ingot inventories, LME zinc recovered part of its losses. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME zinc recorded $3,010.5/mt, down $29.5/mt, a decrease of 0.97%.

SHFE Zinc: At the beginning of the week, SHFE zinc rose as market confidence was boosted by remarks from the central bank governor Pan Gongsheng, who emphasized strengthening the intensity and precision of monetary policy adjustments. However, this boost was quickly digested by the market, and the impact of the overseas market became more apparent, leading to a fluctuating decline in SHFE zinc. Subsequently, due to domestic refined zinc production in December falling below expectations and China's official December Manufacturing PMI, though below expectations, remaining in expansion territory at 50.1, SHFE zinc rose rapidly. SHFE zinc was then closed for the New Year holiday. According to an SMM survey, as of Thursday (January 2), the total zinc ingot inventory across seven regions monitored by SMM was 64,500 mt, a decrease of 700 mt compared to December 26 and an increase of 2,000 mt compared to December 30. Domestic inventory increased, alleviating the tight spot supply situation, while downstream consumption remained relatively stable. SHFE zinc maintained a wide fluctuating trend. As of 15:00 on Thursday, SHFE zinc recorded 25,265 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.36%.

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