Iron Ore Supply Rebounds, May Fluctuate Rangebound in the Short Term [SMM Commentary]

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Today, DCE iron ore opened lower but closed higher, fluctuating upward throughout the day. The most-traded I2505 contract finally settled at 775.5 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.98% for the day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell. Steel mills remained cautious, with average inquiries. The market transaction atmosphere was moderate today. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were around 770-775 yuan/mt, up 10-15 yuan/mt from last Friday. In Tangshan, PB fines traded at 785-790 yuan/mt, also up 10-15 yuan/mt from last Friday. Last week, SMM reported global iron ore shipments at 34.74 million mt, up 6.8% WoW. Among them, Australian shipments reached 19.49 million mt, up 9.6% WoW, while Brazilian shipments were 8.04 million mt, down slightly by 1.2% WoW. SMM reported China's iron ore port arrivals at 25.75 million mt, up 1.9% WoW. Shipments and port arrivals both increased simultaneously. Iron ore supply remained ample. However, the industrial imbalance was relatively small, with steel mills still profitable, and pig iron production may have hit bottom and stabilized. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound.