Solar Cell Production Schedule Is Expected to Decline, While Silicon Wafer Increases Slightly [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, December 27:

Silica

Prices

This week, silica prices remained stable. The operating rate of the silicon metal industry stayed relatively low at year-end, and a small number of silicon producers still plan maintenance before the Chinese New Year, leading to expectations of further declines in operating rates. Demand for raw silica has weakened further, and the silica market remained mediocre and stable. Currently, the mine-mouth price of low-grade silica in Yunnan is 340-360 yuan/mt. The mine-mouth price of high-grade silica is 360-390 yuan/mt in Inner Mongolia, 420-450 yuan/mt in Hubei, and 440-460 yuan/mt in Jiangxi.

Supply and Demand

Supply: With the addition of newly established mining rights this year, the supply side of silica production remains ample.

Demand: Silica demand continues to fluctuate downward in the short term, with a significant recovery in demand likely to occur in February-March next year.

Silicon Metal

Prices

Yesterday, spot silicon metal transaction prices continued to weaken, with the Si2502 contract hitting a low of 11,180 yuan/mt and closing at 11,195 yuan/mt. Year-end downstream procurement demand for silicon metal remained insufficient. Although silicon producers kept their quotations unchanged, new order transactions were scarce recently. Some producers in south-west China that have suspended production have also stopped quoting and shipping, while price negotiations between sellers and buyers persist.

Production

In December, both supply and demand for silicon metal continued to show weakness. Some producers, affected by sluggish sales and low silicon prices, reported plans for maintenance in the near term.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of December 20, the national social inventory of silicon metal totaled 532,000 mt, down 4,000 mt WoW. Among this, inventory in general warehouses was 152,000 mt, up 1,000 mt WoW, while inventory in delivery warehouses was 380,000 mt (including unregistered warehouse warrants and spot cargo), down 5,000 mt WoW.

Silicon Wafer

Prices

The market price for N-type 18X silicon wafers was 1.05-1.1 yuan/piece, while N-type 210RN silicon wafers were priced at 1.12-1.15 yuan/piece. This week, silicon wafer prices continued to rise, with supply remaining tight. The price of 183 wafers led the increase.

Production

As of December, silicon wafer production by enterprises remained relatively stable, with no significant changes compared to the production schedule at the beginning of the month. Some enterprises may slightly increase production in January.

Inventory

Inventory levels continued to decline, currently dropping to just over 20 GW, with market supply remaining tight.

Solar Cell

Prices

The price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (efficiency of 23.2% and above) was 0.28-0.30 yuan/W; PERC210 solar cells were priced at approximately 0.28-0.28 yuan/W; Topcon183 solar cells (efficiency of 25% and above) were priced at approximately 0.28-0.29 yuan/W; Topcon210RN solar cells were priced at 0.265-0.275 yuan/W; and Topcon210 solar cells were priced at 0.28-0.285 yuan/W. HJT210 half-cell solar cells were priced at 0.38-0.43 yuan/W. Topcon cell prices have generally increased, and a small number of orders with adjusted prices have already been executed.

Production

Some leading manufacturers have confirmed production cuts in January. After the price increase, the operating rate of some solar cell manufacturers stabilized, and January production plans remained steady. Overall, solar cell production in January is expected to decline.

Inventory

After mid-December, external purchases by leading manufacturers dropped sharply, and inventory levels at specialized solar cell manufacturers increased rapidly. However, with expectations for production cuts in January and price increases, module manufacturers have started stockpiling.

PV Film

Prices

PV-Grade EVA/POE

The transaction price of PV-grade EVA was 10,600-11,000 yuan/mt, with prices stabilizing. The domestic delivery-to-factory price of PV-grade POE was approximately 12,000-13,500 yuan/mt, with prices also remaining stable.

PV Film

Currently, the mainstream price for 420g transparent EVA film is 5.21-5.46 yuan/m², 420g white EVA film is 5.63-6.05 yuan/m², 380g EPE film is 5.79-5.89 yuan/m², and 380g POE film is 6.84-7.22 yuan/m².

Production

In December, the planned production of PV-grade EVA was approximately 120,000 mt, while the planned production of PV film was approximately 430 million m². Orders decreased, leading to reduced production schedules.

Inventory

Currently, upstream inventory levels are equivalent to about 20 days of supply. With module production schedules declining, film orders have further decreased, and EVA order signing volumes have also dropped.