SMM Morning Comment: Alumina Supply Improves, Demand Slips, Prices Expected to Stabilize with Slight Decline

SMM Morning Comment on Alumina:

Supply side, domestic alumina operating rates remain high. Although some enterprises have reduced roasting capacity due to winter environmental protection measures and maintenance, the significant profitability of alumina has spurred high enthusiasm for production increases among alumina refineries. Additionally, some alumina refineries have slightly raised their operating capacity.

Demand side, downstream aluminum smelters are facing severe losses. Some aluminum smelters in south China have undergone minor maintenance and production cuts. Meanwhile, some smelters originally planned to complete technological transformations and resume production, but the high cost of raw materials has stalled the progress of resumption, leading to a slight decrease in demand.

Overall, the previously tight alumina supply situation has improved. However, buyers and sellers of alumina are still in a phase of negotiation. Suppliers maintain a sentiment to stand firm on quotes, while downstream players primarily execute long-term contracts and restock at lower prices, showing low acceptance of high prices. In the short term, prices are expected to remain stable with a slight decline.