Solar Cell Prices Generally Increased, EVA Entered Inventory Accumulation Stage [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

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SMM, December 26:

Solar Cell

Prices

High-efficiency PERC 182 solar cells (efficiency of 23.2% and above) are priced at 0.28-0.295 yuan/W; PERC 210 solar cells are priced at approximately 0.28-0.28 yuan/W; Topcon 183 solar cells (efficiency of 25% and above) are priced at approximately 0.28-0.29 yuan/W; Topcon 210RN solar cells are priced at 0.265-0.275 yuan/W; Topcon 210 solar cells are priced at 0.28-0.285 yuan/W. HJT 210 half-cell solar cells are priced at 0.38-0.43 yuan/W. Topcon cell prices have started to rise generally, and a small number of orders with increased prices have already been executed.

Production

In January, influenced by the self-discipline agreement and the Chinese New Year holiday, leading solar cell manufacturers are expected to significantly cut production. Under expectations for production cuts, tight solar cell supply has driven price increases.

Inventory

After mid-December, external purchases by leading manufacturers dropped sharply, and inventories at specialized solar cell manufacturers increased rapidly. However, with production cuts planned for January, overall inventory remains manageable.

Modules

Prices

In the current module market, mainstream transaction prices for centralized projects are 0.64-0.70 yuan/W for PERC 182mm, 0.65-0.71 yuan/W for PERC 210mm, 0.65-0.7 yuan/W for N-type 182mm, and 0.65-0.72 yuan/W for N-type 210mm. The market atmosphere remains firm, but distributed market prices are chaotic, with frequent low-price occurrences.

Production

With the off-season arriving in Q1, companies are producing based on sales to help reduce high inventories. Most companies have scheduled holidays of 10-15 days or more, and overall operating rates are expected to continue declining.

Inventory

Inventory pressure varies among companies. While overall pressure remains moderate, year-end demand for picking up goods has improved turnover.

PV Film

Prices:

EVA/POE PV Materials:

PV-grade EVA is currently priced at 10,600-11,000 yuan/mt. PV-grade POE is transacted at 12,000-13,600 yuan/mt.

PV Film:

The current mainstream price for 420g transparent EVA film is 5.21-5.46 yuan/m², 420g white EVA film is 5.63-6.05 yuan/m², 380g EPE film is 5.79-5.89 yuan/m², and 380g POE film is 6.84-7.22 yuan/m². Film prices have stabilized.

Production

In December, the planned production of PV-grade EVA was approximately 1.2 million mt. Domestic PV film production in December was about 430 million m².

Inventory

Due to reduced module production, PV film orders have also declined, leading to a decrease in order signing for EVA in the market. PV-grade EVA is gradually entering an inventory accumulation phase.

Inverter

Prices

This week, inverter price ranges are as follows: 20kW at 0.12-0.16 yuan/W, 50kW at 0.11-0.15 yuan/W, 110kW at 0.1-0.14 yuan/W, and 320kW at 0.09-0.11 yuan/W. Inverter prices remain stable.

Supply and Demand

On the supply side, production remains stable and sufficient, while overall demand is mediocre. Declining demand in Europe has weakened PV energy storage penetration. However, large power string and centralized models have seen boosted shipments in ground-mounted power station construction areas such as the US and India.

Prices

3.2mm Single-Layer Coating: The price of 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 19.5-20.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

3.2mm Double-Layer Coating: The price of 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 20.5-21.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

2.0mm Single-Layer Coating: The price of 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 11.5-12.0 yuan/m², with potential structural adjustments leading to price increases.

2.0mm Double-Layer Coating: The price of 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 12.5-13.0 yuan/m², with potential structural adjustments leading to price increases.

Production

As of December, there have been no cold repair furnaces domestically, but some furnaces have been sealed, involving a daily melting capacity of nearly 1,000 mt/day.

Inventory

In terms of inventory, changes in glass company inventories have been minimal, with downstream just-in-time procurement being the main focus.