[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Review] The Short-Term Coke Market May Fluctuate Downward

On December 25, SMM Coking Coal News,

Coking Coal Market:

Low-sulfur primary coking coal in Linfen was quoted at 1,500 yuan/mt, while in Tangshan it was quoted at 1,605 yuan/mt.

In terms of supply, the number of suspended coal mines in Shanxi is increasing, while other regions are focusing on year-end safety production, leading to a decline in production. On the demand side, downstream winter stockpiling willingness remains low, coking coal prices continue to decline, and online auction transactions are underperforming. In summary, market rumors suggest that coke prices are expected to drop for the fifth round, with some steel mills already issuing notices. Coupled with weak fundamentals for coking coal, increased winter maintenance at steel mills, and reduced raw material demand, coking coal prices are likely to remain under pressure.

Coke Market:

The nationwide average price of Grade I metallurgical coke (dry quenching) was 2,010 yuan/mt, while quasi-Grade I metallurgical coke (dry quenching) was 1,870 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of Grade I metallurgical coke (wet quenching) was 1,640 yuan/mt, and quasi-Grade I metallurgical coke (wet quenching) was 1,558 yuan/mt.

In terms of supply, coke production remains stable overall, with good shipment performance. Only a few coke enterprises experienced slight production cuts due to environmental protection factors. However, with continued cost reductions in raw materials, coke enterprises maintain moderate profitability and face relatively small production pressure. On the demand side, steel mills continue to cut production, pig iron production is declining, and steel mills maintain high coke inventory levels with low restocking willingness. In summary, some coke enterprises have seen a slight inventory buildup and exhibit a strong willingness to sell. However, steel mills are purchasing as needed, and the traditional off-season has weakened the end-use market. Steel mills are expected to lower coke prices, with some already issuing notices for the fifth round of price cuts. Therefore, the short-term coke market may fluctuate downward.