Why Did November Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Exports Surge Over 500% MoM? [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, in November, China's unwrought zinc alloy exports reached 882.3 mt, up 214% YoY and 506.98% MoM. From January to November, China's cumulative unwrought zinc alloy exports totaled 4,659.39 mt, up 54.58% YoY. Meanwhile, China's imports in November amounted to 4,510.37 mt, up 5.39% YoY. The net import volume of unwrought zinc alloy in November was 3,628.07 mt. Historical data shows that November's die-casting zinc alloy export volume also hit a four-year high.

From the perspective of export destinations, the top three regions for China's unwrought zinc alloy exports in November were Taiwan, China (686.23 mt), Vietnam (78.58 mt), and Bangladesh (23.06 mt). The export volume to Taiwan, China increased by 686 mt MoM, while exports to Vietnam rose by 19.11 mt MoM, and exports to Bangladesh decreased by 27.02 mt MoM.

SMM analysis attributes the sharp increase in November exports to the following factors:

Firstly, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in November 2024 was 49.3%, up 0.5 percentage points from October, marking a six-month high. The slight recovery in demand boosted export volumes. Secondly, concerns over future tariffs led some downstream enterprises to engage in "rush exports" in November, as reported by certain die-casting zinc alloy enterprises, which supported export growth. Lastly, the continuous depreciation of the RMB in November significantly enhanced the competitiveness of alloy exports, driving export volumes higher.

Looking ahead to December, considering the year-end accounting and settlement phase for enterprises, the conclusion of Christmas order shipments, and historical trends showing declines in die-casting zinc alloy exports in December 2021 and 2022, it is expected that December's unwrought zinc alloy export volume will drop back slightly.