In November, Cold-Rolled Stainless Steel Imports from Indonesia Fell by 30.7%; Exports to India Hit a Two-Year Low Due to Trade Barriers [SMM Analysis]

Imports: According to SMM statistics, China's stainless steel imports in November 2024 totaled 137,100 mt, down 17.93% MoM from October and down 12.18% YoY, with cumulative decline at approximately 12.15% YoY. Stainless steel imports from Indonesia in November amounted to 97,400 mt, showing a significant drop of 26.15% MoM (34,500 mt) and a YoY decrease of 7.24%, with cumulative decline at 4.83% YoY. By product type, cold-rolled imports from Indonesia saw the largest decline in November, down by approximately 28,100 mt, while hot-rolled imports remained relatively stable. Semi-manufactured products decreased by 4,700 mt, with hot-rolled volumes remaining relatively stable. Currently, the total volume of stainless steel from Indonesia has indeed declined significantly but still maintains a steady monthly arrival of 5-6 shipments.

Exports: According to SMM statistics, China's stainless steel exports in November 2024 totaled 481,900 mt, up 2.7% MoM and up 25.01% YoY, with cumulative growth at approximately 27.84% YoY. By product type, November exports of plates and coils remained above 300,000 mt, up 25% YoY. Narrow strips and profiles also saw slight increases compared to the previous month, with exports of approximately 31,600 mt and 34,400 mt, respectively, while finished products continued their downward trend. Overall, November remained an off-season for the domestic industry. With Christmas approaching in overseas markets, downstream processing plants released demand for raw material stockpiling, keeping stainless steel exports at high levels with slight growth, while the finished product market tended toward saturation with short-term demand continuing to decline. By region, European countries saw increased demand due to Christmas stockpiling, with exports to Europe rising by 7,200 mt, up 59% MoM. The largest increase in November was to Brazil, with an additional 14,600 mt, up 169% MoM. However, exports to India, previously the largest export destination, plummeted to 19,300 mt, marking the second-lowest level in three years. This was mainly due to the implementation of India's anti-dumping policy on Chinese stainless steel, which has hindered foreign trade. Subsequent exports to India are expected to remain under pressure. Meanwhile, exports to East Asian countries and regions such as China Taiwan, Vietnam, and Japan all showed significant growth. It is expected that in December, the impact of trade barriers will intensify, and with the end of overseas stockpiling purchases, total export volumes will decline.