Refined Zinc Imports in November Down 39.15% MoM, Potential Increase in December? [SMM Analysis]

Publicado: Dec 20, 2024 13:08

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【Refined Zinc Imports in November Down 39.15% MoM, Potential Increase in December?】According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in November 2024 totaled 35,200 mt, down 22,600 mt or 39.15% MoM, and down 32.04% YoY. From January to November, cumulative refined zinc imports reached 412,800 mt, up 15.41% YoY. Refined zinc exports in November were 400 mt, resulting in net imports of refined zinc at 34,700 mt for the month.

SMM, December 20: According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in November 2024 totaled 35,200 mt, down 22,600 mt or 39.15% MoM and down 32.04% YoY. From January to November, cumulative refined zinc imports reached 412,800 mt, up 15.41% YoY. Refined zinc exports in November were 400 mt, resulting in net imports of 34,700 mt for the month.

The top three sources of refined zinc imports in November were Kazakhstan (17,400 mt, 49.47%), South Korea (7,000 mt, 19.95%), and Australia (2,300 mt, 6.67%). By country, imports from Kazakhstan and South Korea increased, while imports from other countries declined to varying degrees.

Overall, the decline in November imports was mainly due to the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio showing some recovery during the month, but the pattern of LME outperforming SHFE remained unchanged. The import window only opened occasionally in mid-month with limited opportunities, leading to a low inflow of spot orders. Imports were primarily driven by long-term contracts, resulting in a significant decline.

Looking ahead to next month, although LME inventory continues to decline overseas and the ratio of cancelled warrants exceeds 30%, the US Fed's unexpectedly hawkish remarks on next year's interest rate cuts have pushed the US dollar to a nearly two-year high, putting pressure on LME zinc prices. Domestically, due to the high concentration of long positions in near-month contracts and the continued decline in social inventory, the spot market has seen limited circulating supply, with premiums rising rapidly. Zinc prices are expected to remain relatively strong, with SHFE outperforming LME, pushing the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio above 8.5. The import window is expected to open intermittently, coupled with the inflow of previously locked-in priced cargoes, potentially increasing imports to over 40,000 mt.

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Declaração sobre a Fonte de Dados: Com exceção das informações publicamente disponíveis, todos os demais dados são processados pela SMM com base em informações publicamente disponíveis, comunicação de mercado e com base no modelo de base de dados interna da SMM. São apenas para referência e não constituem recomendações para a tomada de decisão.

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