Aluminum Prices Fall Below the 20,000 Yuan/mt Mark, Failing to Ignite Market Consumption Confidence [SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review]

This morning, the SHFE aluminum futures market center shifted downward in a stepwise manner, breaking below the 20,000 yuan/mt threshold. Downstream consumption in east China remained sluggish, prompting suppliers to lower premiums for sales. Spot market discounts widened, but after SHFE aluminum fell below 20,000 yuan/mt, spot discounts narrowed slightly. However, downstream buyers remained cautious, leading to weak market transactions. Today, the SMM A00 spot price recorded a discount of 90 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2501 contract, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Considering the price spread between futures contracts, the actual decline was around 20 yuan/mt. SMM A00 aluminum ingot prices stood at 19,900 yuan/mt, down 260 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

In the central China market, aluminum prices also fell below the 20,000 yuan/mt threshold. Amid tight market supply, suppliers held back cargoes, narrowing the Henan-Shanghai price spread to a discount of around 130 yuan/mt. The SMM Central China A00 price recorded 19,770 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2501 contract, down 230 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Actual market transactions were made at a premium of around 20 yuan/mt against the SMM Central China price.

Inventory-wise, according to SMM's daily inventory statistics, inventories in major consumption regions saw slight increases due to higher arrivals. Attention should be paid to downstream consumption performance after aluminum prices fell below 20,000 yuan/mt. Outflows from warehouses in major consumption regions may slightly improve, but under the negative effects of the off-season and weak export orders, the market remains a seller's market. The SMM A00 spot discount is expected to narrow only slightly this week.

Data source: SMM

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