The Operating Rates of Copper Billet Producers Rose as Expected in November, but Are Unlikely to Sustain in December [SMM Analysis]

According to the SMM survey, the operating rate of copper billet producers in November 2024 was 54.91%, up 3.66% MoM. Specifically, the operating rate of large enterprises was 56.79%, medium-sized enterprises 52.53%, and small enterprises 49.01%. (Surveyed enterprises: 56, capacity: 2.25 million mt)

The operating rates of the copper billet market continued to rise MoM in November, in line with market expectations. Q4 is the traditional peak season for the copper billet market, with refrigeration orders recovering significantly MoM and exports of downstream and end-use sectors performing well. This is mainly due to market concerns about tariff hikes after Trump takes office, leading many end-user industries to rush their export businesses. However, copper billet producers indicated that although the market has warmed up MoM, there has been a certain decline in the refrigeration, HVAC, and electrical industries compared to 2023, with overall market demand shrinking. Additionally, due to a significant drop in overseas procurement volumes of secondary brass alloy raw materials by traders recently and good market demand, many traders' inventories have been depleted, creating a tight raw material market.

According to the SMM survey, the operating rate of copper billet producers in December 2024 is expected to be 54.01%, down 0.9% MoM.

According to SMM, most enterprises expect copper billet orders to remain strong in December, continuing the market conditions of November, with the refrigeration industry and downstream export businesses still being the main support, and the export direction mainly towards North America. Additionally, December is the time for enterprises to rush for their annual production targets, which is expected to drive the overall industry. However, some small enterprises may end their operations earlier due to a lack of competitiveness, thus dragging down the operating rate. On the raw material side, SMM expects the tight supply of secondary brass alloy raw materials to intensify. Typically, traders stockpile at year-end, but in 2024, most traders and copper billet producers indicated that to avoid unnecessary risks, they will continue to suspend the procurement of US secondary brass alloy raw materials in December, further exacerbating the tight supply of raw materials.