SMM Analysis on China November PV Module Production and December Forecast 

According to SMM statistics, China's PV module production in November decreased by approximately 1.6% MoM, with an industry operating rate of about 49.6%. By technology route, the production schedule share of BC modules remained stable with a slight increase, HJT saw a significant production increase due to orders, and TOPCon continued to dominate the mainstream market. The primary reduction in November came from domestic bases of Chinese enterprises, with a growing number of small third-tier factories significantly reducing or halting production at year-end due to insufficient orders. First and second-tier top-tier module enterprises had sufficient demand for year-end tender deliveries, maintaining or slightly adjusting their operating rates. Some enterprises chose to significantly increase production to meet order demands and strive to achieve shipment targets. Production at overseas bases of Chinese enterprises also increased, mainly from the US and Malaysia, attributed to local demand in the US, import demand from India, and relatively smaller impact of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tax rates on Malaysia among Southeast Asian countries.

Entering December, China's PV module production schedule is expected to continue decreasing, down approximately 9.7% MoM from November, with an industry operating rate of about 44.8%. The primary reduction still comes from domestic bases of Chinese enterprises, while the reduction at overseas bases mainly comes from Southeast Asian countries with high anti-dumping tax rates such as Vietnam and Thailand. Both first and second-tier top-tier enterprises are reducing production, with an increasing number of top-tier enterprises choosing significant production cuts due to high turnover inventory at year-end, the retreat of the rush for installations, reduced export tax rebate rates, and loss pressure. Most module enterprises are opting for production based on demand to ensure year-end inventory levels remain reasonable, which will help stabilize PV module prices in Q1 next year.