The Preliminary Anti-Dumping Duty Rates for Four Southeast Asian Countries Announced! Up to 271%! [SMM Analysis]

On November 29, 2024, US time, the US Department of Commerce announced the preliminary affirmative determination of the anti-dumping duty (AD) investigation on crystalline solar cells (whether or not assembled into modules) from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The anti-dumping duty rates for the four Southeast Asian countries range from 0 to 271.28%, with Hanwha Qcell Malaysia having an anti-dumping duty rate of 0.

Jinko Solar's products produced in Malaysia have an anti-dumping duty of 21.31%, while those produced in Vietnam have an anti-dumping duty of 56.51%. Previously, in October, the countervailing duty for Jinko's Malaysian factory was approximately 3.47%.

Trinasolar's products produced in Thailand have an anti-dumping duty of 77.85%, while those produced in Vietnam have an anti-dumping duty of 54.46%. The countervailing duty for Trinasolar's Thai factory was approximately 0.14%.

JA Solar Technology's products produced in Vietnam have an anti-dumping duty of 53.3%. The previously announced countervailing duty was approximately 2.85%.

In contrast, the Department of Commerce did not set an anti-dumping duty for Hanwha Qcells' products produced in Malaysia. Last October, the Department of Commerce calculated a countervailing duty of 14.72% for the company.

The final determination by the Department of Commerce will be made on April 18, 2025, and the International Trade Administration plans to complete the determination by June 2, with the final order expected to be issued on June 9.

Most of the PV modules installed in the US are manufactured overseas, with about 80% of imported products coming from the four Southeast Asian countries under investigation by the Department of Commerce. The market had previously anticipated that the preliminary anti-circumvention duty rates would be significantly higher than the countervailing duty rates. After the implementation of anti-dumping and countervailing duties, the advantage of exporting modules to the US from the four Southeast Asian countries will be significantly weakened, but this has already been anticipated by Chinese PV companies.

According to SMM, since the end of the anti-dumping and countervailing duty exemption window period in June 2024, Chinese companies have been gradually preparing to shut down their module capacity in Southeast Asia. As of now, most of the capacity has been halted, with only inventory modules being sold off. To ensure market share in the US, Chinese PV companies are considering building factories locally in the US. Leading module companies such as LONGi, Jinko, JA Solar, Trinasolar, and Canadian Solar have all put modules into operation in 2024. Considering the supply gap and dependency on solar cells in the US, Southeast Asia is expected to gradually transition from exporting modules to exporting solar cells, with the shortage of domestic cells in the US likely to persist for 2 to 3 years.