Guinea Bauxite CIF Prices Frequently Hit Record Highs; Guinea Bauxite Shipments Fall Short of Pre-Rainy Season Levels [SMM Analysis]

According to data from November 29, the total weekly bauxite arrivals at domestic ports reached 3.7287 million mt, an increase of 502,700 mt from the previous week. The total weekly bauxite port departures from Guinea's main ports (including Boffa Port) were 3.5721 million mt, up 958,300 mt from the previous week. The total weekly bauxite port departures from Australia's main ports were 1.0547 million mt, an increase of 54,600 mt from the previous week. Based on the original statistical caliber of port departure data (excluding Boffa Port), the weekly bauxite port departures from Guinea were 2.2537 million mt, up 302,600 mt WoW. In terms of trends, the bauxite shipments from Guinea in October-November have significantly rebounded compared to the July-September rainy season but have not yet stabilized to pre-rainy season levels. The shipment data also shows that the bauxite shipments in October-November are unlikely to reach the levels of June 2024, where the average weekly bauxite shipments were about 3.15 million mt, while the average weekly shipments in October and November were 2.91 million mt and 3.05 million mt, respectively. The import volume of Guinea bauxite in December to January of the following year is unlikely to surpass the historical high of August 2024.

However, the bauxite shipments from Guinea in October-November have shown a significant rebound compared to the rainy season. According to Guinea bauxite shipment data, the average weekly shipments in July-September were around 2.3-2.4 million mt. Therefore, the import volume of bauxite in December to January of the following year is expected to increase compared to September-November.

As of November 29, 2024, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $92/mt, up 31.4% YoY, repeatedly hitting record highs. However, there is still some growth momentum in bauxite prices. Guinea is currently the primary source of imported bauxite for the domestic market and the main source of incremental bauxite supply. However, based on the forecast for import volumes of Guinean bauxite, a significant increase in domestic bauxite supply is unlikely. Coupled with the lack of significant improvement in domestic bauxite supply, the domestic bauxite supply is expected to remain tight, and prices are expected to fluctuate upward.