Analysis of the Impact of the "PV Manufacturing Industry Standard Conditions" (2024 Edition) on the Solar Cell Market

On November 15, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially released the 2024 revised versions of the "PV Manufacturing Industry Standard Conditions" and the "Interim Measures for the Administration of PV Manufacturing Industry Standard Announcements." The "PV Manufacturing Industry Standard Conditions (2021 Edition)" and the "Interim Measures for the Administration of PV Manufacturing Industry Standard Announcements (2021 Edition)" (Announcement No.5 of 2021 by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology) were simultaneously invalidated. The standards put forward the following requirements for solar cell process technology:

(1) Existing PV manufacturing enterprises and project products: The average photoelectric conversion efficiency of polycrystalline silicon cells, P-type monocrystalline silicon cells, and N-type monocrystalline silicon cells (bifacial cells calculated based on front-side efficiency) should not be lower than 21.4%, 23.2%, and 25%, respectively.

(2) New and expanded enterprises and project products: The average photoelectric conversion efficiency of polycrystalline silicon cells, P-type monocrystalline silicon cells, and N-type monocrystalline silicon cells (bifacial cells calculated based on front-side efficiency) should not be lower than 21.7%, 23.7%, and 26%, respectively.

(3) Power consumption should meet the following requirements: The average comprehensive power consumption of P-type crystalline silicon cell projects should be less than 50,000 kWh/MWp, and for N-type crystalline silicon cell projects, it should be less than 70,000 kWh/MWp.

(4) Water consumption should meet the following requirements: The water consumption of existing P-type crystalline silicon cell projects should be less than 400 mt/MWp, and for N-type crystalline silicon cell projects, it should be less than 600 mt/MWp. Enterprises are encouraged to use recycled water; for new and expanded projects, water consumption should be less than 360 mt/MWp, and the recycled water usage rate should be higher than 40%.

The standards propose requirements for the future photoelectric conversion efficiency of solar cell modules and the power and water consumption in the production process.

According to an SMM survey, the current average efficiency levels of most cells meet the efficiency requirements mentioned in the standards. Polycrystalline silicon cells have basically exited the Chinese market, and the supply of P-type monocrystalline silicon cells is also rapidly shrinking. The existing P-type cell producers are all first-tier manufacturers, with an average efficiency of around 23.4%. N-type monocrystalline silicon cells are divided into three technical routes: Topcon, HJT, and BC. The average efficiency of Topcon cells increased from 24.3% to 25.2% in 2024. As of the time the standards were issued, the mainstream efficiency of Topcon cells under mass production was 25.0%-26.0%. Leading domestic cell enterprises can mass-produce ultra-high-efficiency cells with efficiencies exceeding 26%, but the proportion of output at this efficiency level is relatively small. The current average efficiency of HJT cells is 25.2%, with a slower and more challenging efficiency improvement compared to Topcon cells. The standards mainly constrain the front-side efficiency of solar cells, which is an advantage of BC cells, as their front-side efficiency is more than 1% higher than that of Topcon and HJT cells.

The power and water consumption requirements for cell production processes mentioned in the standards are also generally met by existing manufacturers. With the improvement of equipment technology and system optimization capabilities, the power and water consumption in cell production are continuously decreasing. According to an SMM survey, the power consumption for PERC cell production is below 35,000 kWh/MWp, and for N-type Topcon cell production, it is below 50,000 kWh/MWp. The power consumption for N-type HJT cells is lower than that for Topcon cells, and all can meet the requirements of the standards. However, the power consumption for BC cell production is relatively higher. The water consumption for N-type HJT cells is lower than that for Topcon cells, but the water consumption for BC cells is higher than that for Topcon cells. According to an SMM survey, the water consumption for N-type HJT cells is 200-300 mt/MWp, for N-type Topcon cells, it is 400-600 mt/MWp, and for N-type BC cells, it is above 650 mt/MWp.

In summary, the efficiency requirements in the standards have little impact on existing cell manufacturers but pose a high threshold for new capacity and cross-industry players. To some extent, this curbs the blind expansion of solar cell capacity and plays a key role in guiding the high-quality development of the industry. The power and water consumption requirements pose greater challenges for BC cells. Under the guidance of the standards, the mass production threshold for BC cells continues to rise, which helps curb the blind expansion of new capacity and further promotes existing BC cell manufacturers to optimize processes and improve technology. Overall, the solar cell industry will enter a stage of high-quality development, shifting from capacity expansion competition to technological competition.