China's bauxite imports dropped significantly in September,  impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments weakened in October

According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in September 2024, China imported 11.5536 million mt of bauxite, down 25.68% MoM, up 15.82% YoY. From January to September 2024, China cumulatively imported 119.45 million mt of bauxite, up 12.17% YoY.

By country:

In September, imports from Guinea were 6.6926 million mt, down 39.18% MoM, down 0.51% YoY; imports from Australia were 4.0511 million mt, up 11.68% MoM, up 52.84% YoY; imports from Turkey were 336,800 mt, from Laos 221,200 mt, from The Republic of Côte d'Ivoire 94,800 mt, from Montenegro 83,600 mt, from Brazil 50,100 mt, and from Malaysia 23,200 mt.

From January to September, imports from Guinea were 84.4924 million mt, accounting for 70.73% of total imports, up 11.4% YoY; imports from Australia were 29.3024 million mt, accounting for 24.53% of total imports, up 19.77% YoY; non-mainstream bauxite imports totaled 5.6562 million mt, accounting for 4.74% of total imports, up 29.99% compared to 2023 non-mainstream bauxite imports (excluding imports from Indonesian).

Mainstream bauxite import sources:

In September, China's bauxite imports from Guinea dropped sharply by 39.18% MoM, down 0.51% YoY, with an absolute reduction of 4.311 million mt. SMM analysis indicates that the bauxite imported from Guinea in September coincided with the onset of the rainy season in Guinea in July, significantly reducing shipment volumes during the period, with the lowest weekly shipment at only 1.4 million mt. In October-November, domestic bauxite imports from Guinea are still under the influence of the rainy season, expected to remain relatively low this year, but may see a slight increase based on shipment volumes.

In September, China's bauxite imports from Australia totaled 4.0511 million mt, up 52.84% YoY. From January to September 2024, total bauxite imports from Australia were 29.3024 million mt, with an absolute increase of 4.8362 million mt, mainly due to the expansion of bauxite projects in Australia and surplus bauxite from alumina production cuts.

Non-mainstream bauxite import sources:

In September 2024, bauxite imports from countries like Turkey, Laos, The Republic of Côte d'Ivoire, Montenegro, Brazil, and Malaysia totaled 809,800 mt, accounting for 7.01% of total imports in September.

The significant reduction in bauxite imports from Guinea in September led to a noticeable decline in total bauxite imports. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to continue affecting domestic port arrivals in October-November, with bauxite imports likely to remain low. However, based on shipment data, the lowest shipment period has passed, and although the rainy season's impact will continue, bauxite imports may see a slight increase. Entering October, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea weakened, and shipment volumes increased significantly. It is expected that by the end of November to December, domestic port arrivals of bauxite from Guinea will see a significant increase.