US Fed's Future Interest Rate Cut Expectations Weaken, Copper Prices Continue to Be Under Pressure [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

LME copper opened at $9,128/mt overnight, initially dipped to $9,107/mt, then rose to an intraday high of $9,218/mt, but fell all the way towards the end of the session, finally closing at $9,144.5/mt, down 1.66%. Trading volume reached 30,000 lots, and open interest reached 273,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2412 contract opened at 74,820 yuan/mt overnight, initially peaked at 75,210 yuan/mt, then declined all the way, hitting a low of 74,660 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 74,680 yuan/mt, down 1.46%. Trading volume reached 40,000 lots, and open interest reached 149,000 lots. Macro side, Trump promised in his campaign to intensify the trade war, imposing a general tariff of 10% to 20% on all US imports and a special punitive tariff of 60% to 100% on Chinese goods. Economists warn that such measures could trigger inflation. US Fed's Kashkari stated that if inflation unexpectedly rises in December, interest rate cuts might be paused, which is bearish for copper prices. Fundamentally, supply side, some domestic sources are expected to decrease, but a large amount of imported copper will flow into domestic trade this week, providing some replenishment. Demand side, copper prices fluctuated down to a low range, prompting downstream bargain hunting, with transactions slightly warming up compared to the previous day. Price side, the US dollar index continued to rise, and copper prices are expected to remain under pressure today.