SMM Analysis On China October High-carbon Ferrochrome Production And November Forecast

According to SMM data, the national production of high-carbon ferrochrome slightly decreased in October 2024. In October, the peak season for stainless steel consumption did not meet expectations, leading to an inventory backlog of chrome raw materials at stainless steel mills. Major stainless steel producers significantly reduced their bidding prices for high-carbon ferrochrome. With the substantial compression of high-carbon ferrochrome prices, losses occurred, prompting many small and medium-sized ferrochrome plants to increase production cuts and maintenance. However, large ferrochrome plants experienced relatively limited losses. Due to high costs of shutdowns and the pressure of annual electricity agreements, the reduction in their production was relatively small. Overall, ferrochrome production saw only a slight decline.

National production of high-carbon ferrochrome in November is expected to further decrease compared to October. The procurement prices for high-carbon ferrochrome by stainless steel plants continued to decline in November, while the low-cost chrome ore had not yet arrived at ports, exacerbating the losses for ferrochrome producers. Previously, the market was oversupplied, and with the off-season approaching year-end, the market held a pessimistic outlook for future performance, reducing production enthusiasm. Many producers that had previously halted production have no plans to resume within this year. The Sichuan region has entered the dry season, increasing electricity costs, leading most producers in the area to choose to halt or reduce production. Additionally, other regions also had significant production cut plans in mid-October. Therefore, production is expected to further decrease in November.