SMM Analysis On Overseas October Aluminum Production And November Forecast

According to SMM statistics, in October 2024 (31 days), overseas aluminum total production was up 0.1% YoY, with cumulative production up 1.1% YoY. The average operating rate was 87.8%, down 0.5% MoM, up 0.1% YoY, maintaining overall stable production. New Zealand's Tiwai Point smelter reduced production by 125,000 mt in July and August due to power rationing but ended the cuts by the end of September and is expected to return to normal production levels by February 2025. Meanwhile, Press Metal's plant in Samalaju experienced an explosion in September, affecting about 9% of its total aluminum capacity, involving 100 out of 300 electrolytic cells in Phase III, and is expected to reduce Press Metal's 2024 annual aluminum production by about 3%. The damaged facilities are expected to take approximately four months to repair, after which production will gradually resume.

Additionally, other resumption progress is as follows: South America's Alumar aluminum smelter (60% owned by Alcoa, 40% by South32) announced resumption in April 2022, with the operating rate recovering to about 72% in October, and the remaining capacity to be resumed is about 125,000 mt. Russia's Taishet aluminum smelter has seen slow progress since the resumption announcement in 2022, with the operating rate recovering to about 67% in October, and the remaining capacity to be resumed is 145,000 mt. Europe's Trimet announced the resumption of its three aluminum smelters in Germany in April this year, expected to reach full production by mid-2025, with the operating rate recovering to about 66% in October, and the remaining capacity to be resumed is 277,000 mt. In terms of new capacity, the second phase of the Hua Chin aluminum smelter in Indonesia, with an expansion capacity of 250,000 mt, started production this month and is expected to reach full production by year-end or early next year, with a total capacity of 500,000 mt. Additionally, no overseas aluminum smelters reduced production in October due to high alumina costs.

Looking ahead to November, SMM expects overseas aluminum production in November 2024 (30 days) to increase slightly by 0.3% YoY, with the average operating rate reaching 88%, up 0.2% MoM, and up 0.4% YoY.