Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,037.5/mt, briefly touched a low of $2,034.5/mt during the Asian session, fluctuated upward to a high of $2,060/mt in the European session, and dropped back slightly at the end to close at $2,037/mt, down 0.44%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2412 contract opened at a high of 16,950 yuan/mt. Due to increased short positions, SHFE lead fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 16,810 yuan/mt at the end and closing at 16,840 yuan/mt, up 0.24%.
Macro side, the US Fed's November meeting unanimously agreed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, removing the phrase "more confident" regarding inflation from the statement. Powell stated he would not resign because of Trump and would not resign voluntarily; in the short term, elections will not impact policy; future interest rate cuts can be fast or slow as needed, and rate hikes are not planned; the omission of the confidence phrase does not imply any hint about sticky inflation; he does not wish to provide too much forward guidance. According to China Customs statistics, in the first 10 months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 36.02 trillion yuan, up 5.2% YoY.
Fundamentals, air pollution warnings in regions such as Henan, Hebei, and Anhui have been lifted. On one hand, transportation restrictions for some primary lead smelters have ended, and on the other hand, secondary lead smelters have resumed production. Meanwhile, with only six working days left until the SHFE lead 2411 contract delivery date, suppliers are increasing the volume of lead ingots transferred from in-plant inventory to social warehouses. Overall, short-term inventory buildup pressure may keep lead prices fluctuating rangebound.
