Overnight Copper Prices Dropped Slightly as Market Awaits Key Data Release [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,546/mt, initially declined to $9,488/mt, then rose all the way, fluctuated rangebound during the session, and peaked at $9,566/mt. It dropped back slightly at the end of the session, finally closing at $9,559/mt, up 0.09%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest reached 275,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2412 contract opened at 76,270 yuan/mt, initially dipped to 76,250 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upwards during the session, and peaked at 76,630 yuan/mt. It dropped back slightly at the end of the session, finally closing at 76,440 yuan/mt, down 0.3%. Trading volume reached 35,000 lots, and open interest reached 155,000 lots. Macro side, last night, the US released the "small non-farm" data, with October ADP employment numbers recording 233,000, the largest increase since July 2023. Some analysts believe that a stronger-than-expected labour market may make US Fed officials less aggressive in cutting interest rates. Fundamentally, supply side, the recent impact of imported copper is gradually fading, but the issue of reduced domestic supply is emerging, leading to tight spot copper cathode supply. Demand side, copper prices fluctuate rangebound, with downstream restocking mainly driven by rigid demand. Overall market activity remains low, and consumption demand is expected to show no significant improvement by month-end. Copper prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend before the release of a series of key data. Attention should be paid to the subsequent copper price trends.